公司简介
公司作为三七产业龙头，依托昆药血塞通和昆中药品牌优势，带动品类集群发展，驱动业绩持续提升。2017-2021 年，公司营收及归母净利润年均复合增速为9%、11%。2022 年前三季度实现营收62 亿元（+3%）；归母净利润3.7 亿元（-14%）。2023 年1 月19 日，公司完成董事会改组工作，正式并入华润三九。
投资逻辑：
华润三九控股28%，产品结构持续优化。2022 年5 月9 日，华润三九收购公司28%的股份，成为公司实际控制人，有望助力公司强化销售渠道建设， 打开全国销售市场，带动公司盈利能力提升。2021年， 公司实现营收82.5 亿元（ +7%） ， 归母净利润5.08 亿元（+11%），其中口服剂表现亮眼，营收28.9 亿元（+14%），针剂营收惨淡仅为8.50 亿元（-32%）。2022 年前三季度净利润同比下滑主要由于前三季度受疫情冲击，针剂院内渠道受阻。
黄金单品带动品类集群，昆中药品牌优势凸显。2021 年血塞通软胶囊销量达5.66 亿粒（+40%），销售收入5.93 亿元（+28%），血塞通软胶囊在整个心脑血管治疗板块业绩占比达到31%（+10pct），成为心脑血管治疗领域的支柱产品。昆中药持续推动大品牌大C 建设，开创OTC 快消化营销模式，进一步扩大品牌影响力。2021 年，昆中药三大单品，参苓健脾胃颗粒收入2.66 亿元（+50%），舒肝颗粒收入1.83 亿元（ +28% ） ， 香砂平胃颗粒收入1.34 亿元（+40%）。
突破新兴赛道，大健康业务快速起步。2022 年前三季度，昆药健康实现营收1.29 亿元（+175%）。公司持续打造明星单品，昆药健康逐步突破皮肤护理和口腔护理赛道。2022 年H1，三七冻干礼盒、妇科凝胶销售均超7 百万，三七牙膏销售超600 万。
盈利预测、估值和评级
预测 2022-2024 年公司分别实现营收 85.6、95.6 和107.7 亿元，同比增长3.8%、11.7%、12.6%。2022-2024 年公司分别实现归母净利 5.3、6.3、7.5 亿元，同比增长 3.4%、20.8%、18.3%。采用市盈率法进行估值，给予2023 年22 倍PE，目标价18.5 元，首次覆盖给予公司“增持”评级。
风险提示
政策风险；产品集采风险、产品推广不及预期、医保药品限价风险、品牌价值变动风险、原材料价格波动风险、股东减持风险。
Company profile
As the leading industry of Panax notoginseng, the company relies on the brand advantages of Kunyao Xuesaitong and Kunming traditional Chinese medicine to drive the development of category clusters and the continuous improvement of performance. From 2017 to 2021, the company's revenue and return net profit grew at an average annual compound rate of 9% and 11%. In the first three quarters of 2022, the revenue was 6.2 billion yuan (+ 3%), and the net profit was 370 million yuan (- 14%). On January 19, 2023, the company completed the reorganization of the board of directors and was formally incorporated into China Resources Sanjiu.
Investment logic:
China Resources Sanjiu Holdings 28%, the product structure continues to be optimized. On May 9, 2022, China Resources Sanjiu acquired 28% of the shares of the company and became the actual controller of the company, which is expected to help the company strengthen the construction of sales channels, open the national sales market, and improve the company's profitability. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 8.25 billion yuan (+ 7%) and net profit of 508 million yuan (+ 11%), of which oral agent performed well, with revenue of 2.89 billion yuan (+ 14%) and dismal revenue of 850 million yuan (- 32%). The year-on-year decline in net profit in the first three quarters of 2022 was mainly due to the blockage of hospital channels for injection due to the impact of the epidemic in the first three quarters.
The gold single product drives the category cluster, and the brand advantage of Kunming traditional Chinese medicine is highlighted. In 2021, Xuesaitong soft capsule sales reached 566 million tablets (+ 40%) and sales revenue reached 593 million yuan (+ 28%). Xuesaitong soft capsule accounted for 31% (+ 10pct) in the whole cardio-cerebrovascular treatment plate and became the pillar product in the field of cardio-cerebrovascular therapy. Kunming traditional Chinese Medicine continues to promote the construction of big brands and big C, create OTC fast digestion marketing model, and further expand the influence of the brand. In 2021, the income of Shenling Jianpiwei granule, Shugan granule and Xiangsha Pingwei granule was 266 million yuan (+ 50%), 183 million yuan (+ 28%) and 134 million yuan (+ 40%) respectively.
Break through the emerging track and start the big health business quickly. In the first three quarters of 2022, Kunming Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 129 million yuan (+ 175%). The company continues to create star products, Kunyao Health gradually break through the skin care and oral care track. In 2022, the sales of H1, Panax notoginseng freeze-dried gift boxes and gynecological gel exceeded 7 million, and the sales of Panax notoginseng toothpaste exceeded 6 million.
Earnings forecasts, valuations and ratings
It is predicted that the company will achieve revenue of 85.6,95.6 and 10.77 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 3.8%, 11.7% and 12.6% over the same period last year. From 2022 to 2024, the company realized net profits of 5.3,6.3 and 750 million yuan respectively, an increase of 3.4%, 20.8% and 18.3% over the same period last year. Using the price-to-earnings ratio method for valuation, it will be given 22 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 18.50 yuan, covering the company's "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
Policy risk; product collection risk, product promotion is not expected, medical insurance drug price limit risk, brand value change risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, shareholder reduction risk.
