事项:
公司发布2022 年四季度和全年业绩报告。2022 年公司实现营业收入452.9 亿元(+67.7%),净亏损达到20.1 亿元(同比扩大526.0%),其中四季度公司实现营业收入176.5 亿元,同环比分别增加66.2%/88.9%,实现净利润2.6 亿元。
平安观点:
四季度交付量符合预期。2022 年四季度公司交付量达到46319 台,同比增长31.5%,环比增长74.6%,四季度交付量符合此前公司给出的交付指引。公司四季度实现车辆销售收入172.7 亿元,对应单车营收达到37.3万元,这主要得益于L9 交付使得公司单车营收增加。毛利润方面,公司四季度汽车销售毛利率达到20.0%,相比22 年一二季度均有所下滑,主要是由于理想ONE 库存以及理想L8 爬坡的影响。公司给出的2023 年一季度的交付指引为5.2~5.5 万台,营收指引为174.5 亿~184.5 亿元,对应单车营收约为33.5 万元,公司1 月交付量为15141 台,预计3 月份交付量有望超过2 万台。
四季度费用端控制较好,单季度实现盈利。公司四季度实现归母净利润2.6 亿元,这主要得益于公司在四季度良好的费用管控能力。研发费用方面,公司四季度研发费用为20.7 亿元,环比仅增长14.7%,对应研发费用率11.7%,全年研发费用为67.8 亿元,同比增长106.3%。销售管理费用方面,公司四季度销售管理费用为16.3 亿元,环比仅增长8.1%,销售管理费用率为9.2%,全年公司销售管理费用为56.7 亿元,销售管理费用率为12.5%,低于研发费用率,2023 年公司销售门店数量将达到400 家,相比2022 年底增加约112 家,并向二三线城市下沉。
2023 年公司的目标是占据30-50 万元豪华SUV 市场份额的20%。公司预计L7/8/9 三款车型(不含Air 版)的稳态月销量为2.5 万台,L7/L8 Air版车型将于4 月初交付,届时公司的稳态月销量将达到3 万台。纯电车型方面,公司的首款纯电车型将在北京工厂量产,但预计不会在23 年上市交付。此外公司L 系列第四款车型L6 预计将于2024 年推出,其售价预计在20-30 万元。
盈利预测与投资建议:结合公司最新情况,我们调整公司2023~2024 净利润预测为17.1 亿/55.4 亿(原预测为15.2 亿/66.1亿),新增公司2025 年营收预测为2247.0 亿元,对应净利润预测为113.0 亿元。公司是造车新势力中最快完成2023 年新车型布局的车企,同时我们认为公司是2023 年增长确定性最强的新势力车企之一,有望凭借L7L8L9 三款车型在23 年实现高速增长,维持公司“推荐”评级。
风险提示:1)公司23 年三款车型销量不佳,导致公司业绩不达预期;2)公司暂无纯电车型上市,市场对公司纯电车型的接受度有待验证;3)纯电车型上市后,公司各项投入可能大幅增加。
Items:
The company issues the fourth quarter and annual results report of 2022. In 2022, the company achieved an operating income of 45.29 billion yuan (+ 67.7%) and a net loss of 2.01 billion yuan (an increase of 526.0% over the same period last year). Among them, the company realized an operating income of 17.65 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 66.2% and 88.9% respectively over the same period last year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan.
Peace viewpoint:
Delivery in the fourth quarter was in line with expectations. The company's delivery volume reached 46319 in the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year and 74.6% month-on-month. The fourth quarter delivery is in line with the previous delivery guidelines given by the company. The company realized 17.27 billion yuan in vehicle sales revenue in the fourth quarter, and the corresponding bicycle revenue reached 373000 yuan, which was mainly due to the increase in L9 delivery. In terms of gross profit, the company's gross profit margin on car sales reached 20.0% in the fourth quarter, down from the first and second quarters of 22 years, mainly due to the impact of ideal ONE inventory and ideal L8 climbing. The delivery guidance given by the company in the first quarter of 2023 is 52m-55000 units, the revenue guidance is 17.45 billion-18.45 billion yuan, the corresponding bicycle revenue is about 335000 yuan, the company delivers 15141 units in January, and the delivery volume is expected to exceed 20,000 units in March.
The expense side of the fourth quarter is well controlled and makes a profit in a single quarter. The company achieved a net profit of 260 million yuan in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the company's good cost control ability in the fourth quarter. In terms of R & D expenses, the company's R & D expenditure in the fourth quarter was 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of only 14.7% compared with the previous quarter, and the corresponding R & D expenditure rate was 11.7%. The annual R & D expenditure was 6.78 billion yuan, an increase of 106.3% over the same period last year. In terms of sales management expenses, the company's sales management expenses in the fourth quarter were 1.63 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.1% compared with the previous quarter, and the sales management expense rate was 9.2%. For the whole year, the company's sales management expenses were 5.67 billion yuan, and the sales management expense rate was 12.5%. Lower than the R & D expense rate, the number of stores sold by the company will reach 400 in 2023, an increase of about 112 compared with the end of 2022, and sink to second-and third-tier cities.
In 2023, the company aims to occupy 20% of the market share of 30-500000 yuan luxury SUV. The company expects steady-state monthly sales of 25000 of the three models (excluding the Air version), and the L7/L8 Air version will be delivered in early April, when the company's steady-state monthly sales will reach 30, 000. In terms of pure electric models, the company's first pure electric model will be mass produced at the Beijing factory, but it is not expected to be delivered in 23 years. In addition, the fourth model of the company's L series, the L6, is expected to be launched in 2024, and its price is expected to be between 20 and 300000 yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: according to the latest situation of the company, we adjust the net profit forecast of the company 2023 to 2024 to 1.71 billion / 5.54 billion (the original forecast is 1.52 billion / 6.61 billion), the revenue forecast of the new company in 2025 is 224.7 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit is 11.3 billion yuan. The company is the fastest car company among the new car-building forces to complete the layout of new models in 2023, and we believe that the company is one of the new car companies with the strongest certainty of growth in 2023, and is expected to achieve rapid growth in 23 years with three L7\ L8\ L9 models. maintain the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the company's 23-year poor sales of three models, resulting in the company's performance is not up to expectations; 2) the company has no pure electric models on the market, and the market acceptance of the company's pure electric models remains to be verified; 3) after the pure electric models are listed, the company's investment is likely to increase significantly.
