Items:
The company issues the fourth quarter and annual results report of 2022. In 2022, the company achieved an operating income of 45.29 billion yuan (+ 67.7%) and a net loss of 2.01 billion yuan (an increase of 526.0% over the same period last year). Among them, the company realized an operating income of 17.65 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 66.2% and 88.9% respectively over the same period last year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan.
Peace viewpoint:
Delivery in the fourth quarter was in line with expectations. The company's delivery volume reached 46319 in the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year and 74.6% month-on-month. The fourth quarter delivery is in line with the previous delivery guidelines given by the company. The company realized 17.27 billion yuan in vehicle sales revenue in the fourth quarter, and the corresponding bicycle revenue reached 373000 yuan, which was mainly due to the increase in L9 delivery. In terms of gross profit, the company's gross profit margin on car sales reached 20.0% in the fourth quarter, down from the first and second quarters of 22 years, mainly due to the impact of ideal ONE inventory and ideal L8 climbing. The delivery guidance given by the company in the first quarter of 2023 is 52m-55000 units, the revenue guidance is 17.45 billion-18.45 billion yuan, the corresponding bicycle revenue is about 335000 yuan, the company delivers 15141 units in January, and the delivery volume is expected to exceed 20,000 units in March.
The expense side of the fourth quarter is well controlled and makes a profit in a single quarter. The company achieved a net profit of 260 million yuan in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the company's good cost control ability in the fourth quarter. In terms of R & D expenses, the company's R & D expenditure in the fourth quarter was 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of only 14.7% compared with the previous quarter, and the corresponding R & D expenditure rate was 11.7%. The annual R & D expenditure was 6.78 billion yuan, an increase of 106.3% over the same period last year. In terms of sales management expenses, the company's sales management expenses in the fourth quarter were 1.63 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.1% compared with the previous quarter, and the sales management expense rate was 9.2%. For the whole year, the company's sales management expenses were 5.67 billion yuan, and the sales management expense rate was 12.5%. Lower than the R & D expense rate, the number of stores sold by the company will reach 400 in 2023, an increase of about 112 compared with the end of 2022, and sink to second-and third-tier cities.
In 2023, the company aims to occupy 20% of the market share of 30-500000 yuan luxury SUV. The company expects steady-state monthly sales of 25000 of the three models (excluding the Air version), and the L7/L8 Air version will be delivered in early April, when the company's steady-state monthly sales will reach 30, 000. In terms of pure electric models, the company's first pure electric model will be mass produced at the Beijing factory, but it is not expected to be delivered in 23 years. In addition, the fourth model of the company's L series, the L6, is expected to be launched in 2024, and its price is expected to be between 20 and 300000 yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: according to the latest situation of the company, we adjust the net profit forecast of the company 2023 to 2024 to 1.71 billion / 5.54 billion (the original forecast is 1.52 billion / 6.61 billion), the revenue forecast of the new company in 2025 is 224.7 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit is 11.3 billion yuan. The company is the fastest car company among the new car-building forces to complete the layout of new models in 2023, and we believe that the company is one of the new car companies with the strongest certainty of growth in 2023, and is expected to achieve rapid growth in 23 years with three L7\ L8\ L9 models. maintain the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the company's 23-year poor sales of three models, resulting in the company's performance is not up to expectations; 2) the company has no pure electric models on the market, and the market acceptance of the company's pure electric models remains to be verified; 3) after the pure electric models are listed, the company's investment is likely to increase significantly.