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理想汽车-W(02015.HK):规模效应持续体现;1Q23交付指引积极

Ideal Automobile-W (02015.HK): Scale effects continue to be reflected; 1Q23 delivery guidance is positive

中金公司 ·  Feb 28, 2023 13:13  · Researches

4Q22 performance exceeded market expectations

The company announced 4Q22 results: realized revenue of 17.65 billion yuan, year-on-year + 66.2%, month-on-month + 88.9%. The net profit of Non-GAAP is 968 million yuan and that of 4Q21/3Q22 is 1.24 billion yuan respectively. Benefiting from the continued growth in quarterly delivery volumes, economies of scale continue to reflect, driving results that exceed market expectations.

Trend of development

We will continue to increase investment in research and development, and the scale effect will continue to be reflected. 4Q22 delivered a total of 46319 vehicles, with a month-on-month ratio of + 74.6%, of which the ideal ONE/L9/L8 was 1987pm 28850amp 15482 respectively. Driven by the improvement of product structure, the revenue of 4Q22 bikes is 372813 yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 9.3%. The gross profit margin of 4Q22 car sales / comprehensive gross profit margin was 20.2% / 20.0% respectively, gradually returning to the normal level, but there is still a certain drag on the climbing of new models and ONE inventory provisions. On the fee side, the total cost of 4Q is 3.7 billion yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 11.7%. Among them, the R & D cost is 2.07 billion yuan, and the month-on-month ratio is + 14.7%, which is mainly due to the increase in the number and salary of new model R & D and R & D personnel; the sales management fee is 1.63 billion yuan, and the month-on-month ratio is + 8.1%. Mainly due to the expansion of the sales network and the increase in employee salary. From the bicycle point of view, the company's economies of scale continue to reflect, 4Q bike fee of 79880 yuan, month-on-month ratio of-36.0%. The net profit of Non-GAAP was 968 million yuan, and the net profit of bicycle Non-GAAP was 20890 yuan, which was significantly improved compared with the same period in the fourth quarter.

1Q delivery guidelines are positive, with a clear path from 1 to 10. The company has directed 1Q23 to deliver 5.2-55000 vehicles, corresponding to 18430-19930 vehicles per month in February-March. We expect March delivery to exceed 20, 000 vehicles, with strong guidance. For the whole year, the company plans to achieve a 20% share of the domestic 300,000-500,000 SUV market (corresponding to about 140-1.5 million vehicle sales) and double the delivery volume; we expect that the new model is expected to reach a steady state of monthly sales in the second quarter, and the cost reduction of batteries and spare parts will push up the gross profit margin quarter by quarter. On the product side, the ideal L7 is planned to be delivered in March, the L series matrix is perfect, and the company plans to launch the first pure electric model with Qualcomm Inc's latest 8295 chip at the end of the year; at the channel end, the number of stores continues to expand and the operation center sinks, the company plans to implement targeted sales strategies in different cities. We believe that the development path of the company from 1 to 10 is clear, from the ideal ONE hot-selling models in the past to more than 8 models of L9scarp have reached monthly sales of more than 10,000. The gradual expansion of the product matrix is expected to lead to the continuous improvement of the company's production and sales level. 4Q23 plans to officially launch the city NOA, as well as pure electric models and follow-up L6can5 models with a price band of 20-300000 yuan to achieve mass production and listing, and the market's concerns about the company's smart driving and pure electric layout are expected to continue to improve.

Profit forecast and valuation

At present, both US stocks and Hong Kong stocks correspond to 1.6 Universe 0.7 x 2023 Cyber 24-year EV/Revenue, maintaining the rating of outperforming industry unchanged. Maintain the profit forecast for 2023x24 and keep the target price of US / Hong Kong stocks unchanged at US $31 / HK $120. both US stocks and Hong Kong stocks correspond to 2.0 EV/Revenue in 2023x24, which is 26.5% and 33.0% higher than the current stock price, respectively.

Risk

The epidemic repeatedly affected the production and marketing of the company, and the promotion of new projects was not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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