事件描述
2023 年2 月23 日晚上，公司发布公告：公司控股子公司美瑞科技收到由鹤壁市工业和信息化局转交的由国家履行《禁止化学武器公约》工作办公室出具的《国家禁化武办关于美瑞科技（河南）有限公司建设监控化学品生产设施的批复》（禁化武办发〔2023〕23 号），同意美瑞科技（河南）有限公司在河南省鹤壁市宝山经济技术开发区煤化大道1 号建设第三类监控化学品160000 吨/年光气（全部自产自用，不外售）生产设施，并要求地方主管机关组织做好竣工验收以及生产特别许可审批工作。
光气生产许可通过审批，聚氨酯一体化项目加速推进公司16 万吨/年光气生产设施通过审批，项目建设不确定性落地。项目一期规划HDI10 万吨，CHDI1.5 万吨，PPDI 0.5 万吨，目前已经开工建设，预计2024 年上半年投产，二期项目远期规划20 万吨HDI。
HDI 目前单吨净利2.5 万以上，具有高技术壁垒、高利润回报特点。
基于公司光气化基础、己二胺主要原料己二腈的国产化顺利完成以及与鹤壁煤化工的合作，公司有望锁定产品质量和成本双重优势。而CHDI、PPDI 价格和利润更高，其中CHDI 耐油、抗黄变性能优、耐候性强；PPDI 产品回弹性、耐磨性等优越，两产品下游应用潜力较大；生产方面，公司CHDI、PPDI 产品线采用从硝基苯胺-对苯二胺-CHDA-最终产品的链条化生产，是目前全球唯一在建的连续化产线。
公司未来有望成为国内第一家具备CHDI、PPDI 生产能力的厂商，随着聚氨酯一体化项目的投产，公司业绩和估值将实现双击。
需求回暖预期下，TPU 价格触底反弹
2022 年因需求不振，TPU 价格低位震荡，节前TPU 鞋材已经跌至15200 元/吨，盈利位于底部区间。节后在下游补库及需求回暖预期下，TPU 价格有所反弹，国内TPU 企业纷纷上调价格1500-2000 元/吨，根据百川资讯 ，截至2023.2.23，TPU 鞋材市场价达到16900 元/吨，单吨毛利相对年前有所改善。目前TPU 下游需求仍在持续修复中。未来随着消费电子需求复苏以及地产链竣工端修复，我们预计TPU 在薄膜、鞋材、管道等领域的应用将逐步回暖，TPU 需求增速有望回到10%水平，今年TPU 价格中枢有所改善。
公司产品结构持续优化，10 万吨TPU 新产能预计年中投产近5 年国内TPU 消费CAGR 达到13.4%，传统领域TPU 取代PVC、EVA 等材料，高端市场在隐形车衣、膨胀鞋底等市场快速发展。公司在TPU 业务主推高端化、差异化路线，高端化TPU 产品对公司盈利贡献明显，差异化在于根据客户需求定制产品，在创新研发以及市场响应方面具备明显优势。公司在膨胀型TPU、隐形车衣等高端TPU 市场中处于国内领先水平，目前具有8.5 万吨TPU 产能，一期10 万吨TPU 项目已经逐步封顶，预计2023 年年中陆续投产，此外，公司正在布局的HDI 未来也有望用于高端TPU 生产，一体化降本效应未来将更加显著，巩固TPU 业务规模化和产品结构升级。
投资建议
预计公司2022-2024 年归母净利润分别为1.03、1.83、4.78 亿元，同比增速分别为-13.4%、77.1%、161.5%。当前股价对应PE 分别为77、44、17 倍。2022、2023 年业绩较前值分别变动-11.2%、-8.95%，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
（1）项目建设进度不及预期的风险；
（2）项目审批进度不及预期的风险；
（3）原材料价格大幅波动的风险；
（4）产品价格大幅下跌的风险。
Event description
On the evening of February 23, 2023, the company announced that Meirui Science and Technology, a subsidiary of the company, had received the approval of the State Office for the implementation of the Chemical weapons Convention issued by the working Office of the State for the implementation of the Chemical weapons Convention, transferred by Hebi Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology (2023). Approval for the construction of monitoring chemical production facilities by Meirui Science and Technology (Henan) Co., Ltd. (No. 23) It is agreed that Meirui Science and Technology (Henan) Co., Ltd. should build a production facility of 160000 t / a phosgene (all for self-production and self-use, not for export) at No. 1 Coal Chemical Avenue, Baoshan Economic and technological Development Zone, Hebi City, Henan Province, and require the local competent authorities to organize the completion acceptance and the examination and approval of special production permits.
The phosgene production license has been approved, and the polyurethane integration project has accelerated the approval of the company's 160,000 t / a phosgene production facility, and the project construction has landed indefinitely. The first phase of the project is planned to be HDI10 10,000 tons, CHDI1.5 10,000 tons and PPDI 5000 tons. Construction has already started and is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2024. The second phase of the project has a long-term planning of 200000 tons of HDI.
HDI currently has a net profit of more than 25000 per ton, with the characteristics of high technical barriers and high profit returns.
Based on the photogasification basis of the company, the successful completion of the localization of hexanediamine, the main raw material of hexanediamine, and the cooperation with Hebi Coal Chemical Industry, the company is expected to lock in the double advantages of product quality and cost. The price and profit of CHDI and PPDI are higher, among which CHDI has excellent oil resistance and yellowing resistance and strong weather resistance; PPDI products have superior resilience and wear resistance, and the downstream application potential of the two products is greater; in terms of production, the company's CHDI and PPDI product lines adopt chain production of final products from nitroaniline-p-phenylenediamine-CHDA-, which is the only continuous production line under construction in the world.
The company is expected to become the first domestic manufacturer with CHDI and PPDI production capacity in the future. with the commissioning of the polyurethane integration project, the company's performance and valuation will achieve double-click.
TPU prices bottomed out and rebounded in anticipation of a pick-up in demand
Due to sluggish demand in 2022, TPU prices low shock, pre-festival TPU shoes have fallen to 15200 yuan / ton, profit is located at the bottom of the range. After the festival in the downstream restocking and demand recovery expectations, TPU prices have rebounded, domestic TPU enterprises have raised prices 1500-2000 yuan / ton, according to Baichuan information, as of 2023.2.23 TPU shoes market price reached 16900 yuan / ton, per ton gross margin has improved compared to a year ago. At present, the downstream requirements of TPU are still being repaired continuously. In the future, with the recovery of consumer electronics demand and the repair of the completed end of the real estate chain, we expect the application of TPU in film, shoes, pipes and other fields to gradually pick up, the growth rate of TPU demand is expected to return to 10%, and the price center of TPU has improved this year.
The company's product structure has been continuously optimized. The new production capacity of 100000 tons of TPU is expected to reach 13.4% of domestic TPU consumption in the past five years after it was put into production in the middle of this year. TPU in traditional areas has replaced PVC, EVA and other materials, and the high-end market is developing rapidly in markets such as invisible cars and clothing and inflated soles. The company mainly promotes the route of high-end and differentiation in TPU business. High-end TPU products make a significant contribution to the company's profits. the difference lies in customized products according to customer needs, and has obvious advantages in innovation, research and development and market response. The company is in the leading position in the domestic high-end TPU market, such as expansive TPU, invisible cars and clothing, with a production capacity of 85000 tons of TPU, a phase of 100000 tons of TPU project has been gradually capped, and is expected to be put into production in the middle of 2023. In addition, the HDI being laid out by the company is also expected to be used for high-end TPU production in the future, and the effect of integrated cost reduction will be more significant in the future, consolidating the scale of TPU business and product structure upgrading.
Investment suggestion
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.03,1.83 and 478 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-13.4%, 77.1% and 161.5%, respectively. The current share price is 77 times, 44 times and 17 times PE respectively. The performance in 2022 and 2023 changed by-11.2% and-8.95% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
(1) the risk that the project construction schedule is not as expected.
(2) the risk that the project approval progress is not as expected.
(3) the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.
(4) the risk of a sharp fall in product prices.
