Event description
On the evening of February 23, 2023, the company announced that Meirui Science and Technology, a subsidiary of the company, had received the approval of the State Office for the implementation of the Chemical weapons Convention issued by the working Office of the State for the implementation of the Chemical weapons Convention, transferred by Hebi Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology (2023). Approval for the construction of monitoring chemical production facilities by Meirui Science and Technology (Henan) Co., Ltd. (No. 23) It is agreed that Meirui Science and Technology (Henan) Co., Ltd. should build a production facility of 160000 t / a phosgene (all for self-production and self-use, not for export) at No. 1 Coal Chemical Avenue, Baoshan Economic and technological Development Zone, Hebi City, Henan Province, and require the local competent authorities to organize the completion acceptance and the examination and approval of special production permits.
The phosgene production license has been approved, and the polyurethane integration project has accelerated the approval of the company's 160,000 t / a phosgene production facility, and the project construction has landed indefinitely. The first phase of the project is planned to be HDI10 10,000 tons, CHDI1.5 10,000 tons and PPDI 5000 tons. Construction has already started and is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2024. The second phase of the project has a long-term planning of 200000 tons of HDI.
HDI currently has a net profit of more than 25000 per ton, with the characteristics of high technical barriers and high profit returns.
Based on the photogasification basis of the company, the successful completion of the localization of hexanediamine, the main raw material of hexanediamine, and the cooperation with Hebi Coal Chemical Industry, the company is expected to lock in the double advantages of product quality and cost. The price and profit of CHDI and PPDI are higher, among which CHDI has excellent oil resistance and yellowing resistance and strong weather resistance; PPDI products have superior resilience and wear resistance, and the downstream application potential of the two products is greater; in terms of production, the company's CHDI and PPDI product lines adopt chain production of final products from nitroaniline-p-phenylenediamine-CHDA-, which is the only continuous production line under construction in the world.
The company is expected to become the first domestic manufacturer with CHDI and PPDI production capacity in the future. with the commissioning of the polyurethane integration project, the company's performance and valuation will achieve double-click.
TPU prices bottomed out and rebounded in anticipation of a pick-up in demand
Due to sluggish demand in 2022, TPU prices low shock, pre-festival TPU shoes have fallen to 15200 yuan / ton, profit is located at the bottom of the range. After the festival in the downstream restocking and demand recovery expectations, TPU prices have rebounded, domestic TPU enterprises have raised prices 1500-2000 yuan / ton, according to Baichuan information, as of 2023.2.23 TPU shoes market price reached 16900 yuan / ton, per ton gross margin has improved compared to a year ago. At present, the downstream requirements of TPU are still being repaired continuously. In the future, with the recovery of consumer electronics demand and the repair of the completed end of the real estate chain, we expect the application of TPU in film, shoes, pipes and other fields to gradually pick up, the growth rate of TPU demand is expected to return to 10%, and the price center of TPU has improved this year.
The company's product structure has been continuously optimized. The new production capacity of 100000 tons of TPU is expected to reach 13.4% of domestic TPU consumption in the past five years after it was put into production in the middle of this year. TPU in traditional areas has replaced PVC, EVA and other materials, and the high-end market is developing rapidly in markets such as invisible cars and clothing and inflated soles. The company mainly promotes the route of high-end and differentiation in TPU business. High-end TPU products make a significant contribution to the company's profits. the difference lies in customized products according to customer needs, and has obvious advantages in innovation, research and development and market response. The company is in the leading position in the domestic high-end TPU market, such as expansive TPU, invisible cars and clothing, with a production capacity of 85000 tons of TPU, a phase of 100000 tons of TPU project has been gradually capped, and is expected to be put into production in the middle of 2023. In addition, the HDI being laid out by the company is also expected to be used for high-end TPU production in the future, and the effect of integrated cost reduction will be more significant in the future, consolidating the scale of TPU business and product structure upgrading.
Investment suggestion
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.03,1.83 and 478 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-13.4%, 77.1% and 161.5%, respectively. The current share price is 77 times, 44 times and 17 times PE respectively. The performance in 2022 and 2023 changed by-11.2% and-8.95% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
(1) the risk that the project construction schedule is not as expected.
(2) the risk that the project approval progress is not as expected.
(3) the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.
(4) the risk of a sharp fall in product prices.