Core ideas:
The pharmaceutical industry has stabilized, and the development of medical beauty and industrial microorganisms has entered a new level. The performance of the pharmaceutical industry sector has been under pressure over the past few years due to centralized drug procurement and health insurance negotiations. At present, the gathering pressure in the pharmaceutical industry of the company has been gradually reduced and has returned to the normal growth channel. The field of medical beauty and industrial microbiology is in a period of rapid development and is expected to contribute greater performance flexibility in the next 2-3 years.
The net interest rate of overseas medical and beauty business is expected to increase rapidly, contributing to greater profit elasticity for the sector. Sinclair and HighTech are the main components of the company's overseas medical and beauty business, with net interest rates of more than 20% in 2021, and both revenue and EBITDA maintained rapid growth from 2019 to 2022. It is expected that overseas Sinclair is expected to make a profit quickly through further integration of R & D pipelines and sales channels, and will contribute greater profit elasticity to the sector with the rapid increase in revenue scale.
Domestic medical and beauty business: Eyanshi is in a rapid volume period, equipment products are ready to be launched. Eyanshi was officially listed in China in August 2021 and is the first imported regenerative medical product certified by NMPA Ⅲ medical devices in China. It has achieved sales revenue of 440 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next 2-3 years. In addition, Kuxue entered the domestic market in March 22, and Reaction and pr é ime DermaFacial are expected to be listed in the domestic market in 2023, making a positive sales contribution.
Industrial microbes are expected to become the second growth curve in the company's pharmaceutical manufacturing sector. The industrial microbiology plate takes Hunda Biology as the core R & D and innovation platform, and rapidly expands the industrial layout through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions.
Considering the factors such as the gradual recovery of Meihua Hi-Tech business in the future, the commissioning of Meiqi Health in 2023 and the annual consolidation of Huaren Science and Technology in 2023, we believe that industrial microorganisms will enter a stage of rapid development in 2023. It is expected to become the second growth curve of the company's pharmaceutical manufacturing sector.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.47,1.83,2.18 yuan per share respectively, corresponding to PE32.32x/25.99x/21.81x. With reference to the comparable company valuation, we think it is appropriate to give the company a 2023 32xPE valuation with a reasonable value of 58.6 yuan per share and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Research and development and commercialization are not as expected; policy risks such as collection and acquisition; recurrent epidemic situation, etc.