The performance of ROIC in Ningde era is good: ROIC can be divided into the turnover of net operating assets and the net operating interest rate after tax, which is related to the prosperity of the industry, mainly depends on the demand of the industry, and the net operating interest rate after tax is largely related to the price discourse of the company on the products. Ningde era, as the leader of the industry, has strong bargaining power in the industrial chain, and the company actively lays out the upper reaches, and the gross profit margin can be maintained in the forefront of the industry, superimposed with strong manufacturing capacity and technological innovation capability. the gap between the net profit rate and its peers will be further widened. In addition, the company has the broadest customer base coverage, with Tesla, Inc., Hyundai, Ford, Daimler, Great Wall Motor, ideal, NIO Inc. and other global customers in-depth cooperation, the core customers will digest the company's capacity, turnover can also be better maintained.
Under the framework of ROIC-WACC, the value creation ability of Ningde era is outstanding: ROIC-WACC represents the higher-than-expected return on the use of capital, which means that the growth of earnings per share is higher than expected, and also means that the net benefit of future expansion to the fundamentals is positive and has better growth potential. From 2015 to now, the company's ROIC-WACC is all positive, even in the ROIC downturn of 18-20 years can still maintain the industry's leading value growth.
"demand + supply" jointly drives the sustained growth of Ningde era: on the demand side, the company binds core customers, and its overseas business continues to expand; cut into the energy storage track, and successively obtain the long-term supply intention of Broad Reach Power (900MWh), FlexGen (10GWh), Primergy (1.416GWh photovoltaic energy storage) and GreshamHouse (7.5GWh). On the supply side, Kirin batteries lead structural innovation and enhance the competitiveness of the company's products; with the active layout of sodium ion batteries, the company will benefit from the low cost of sodium ion batteries in the short term and the huge demand for energy storage in the long run.
Investment advice: by accelerating the global production capacity layout, the company will strive to maintain its global leading position, and superimposed energy storage shipments will grow rapidly and become the company's second growth pole. From 2022 to 2024, we estimate that the company will achieve an operating income of 3239.80, 463450, and a net profit of 302.22, 489.78 and 59.40 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 36.22, 22.35 and 18.43 times, respectively, which is covered for the first time and given the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips: market competition aggravates risks; new products and new technology development risks; raw material price fluctuations and supply risks.