Main points of investment
Event: the company announced that the annual revenue is expected to be 14.039 billion yuan, + 7.01% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 1.264 billion yuan, + 8.35% compared with the same period last year, of which 22Q4 realized revenue of 1.856 billion yuan, year-on-year-3.97%, and return-33.63%.
Under the influence of the epidemic, sales still increased slightly, and the pace of tonnage price increase continued. 22 Beer sales for the whole year were + 2.41% to 2.86 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the single-quarter sales were + 11.69%, + 1.84%, + 1.29% and-11.40% respectively compared with the same period last year. Although the impact of the epidemic caused large fluctuations in quarterly sales, the annual sales volume still achieved steady growth. At the same time, the company continues to promote the high-end business strategy of products and expand new channels. It is expected that the sales volume of Lebao and Chongqing brands will increase in the single digits, while the sales of Wusu and 1664 will decline. At the same time, the effective price increase will cope with the rise of raw materials. 22 the annual beer tonnage price is + 4.49% to 4915 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, of which 22Q4 tonnage price is + 8.43%, which is mainly due to the decrease in discount confirmation.
Cost pressure, expenses can be controlled, the level of profitability is still improved. 22 the operating profit margin for the whole year increased by 1.03pct to 23.50% compared with the same period last year, and the home net interest rate increased from + 0.11pct to 9.00% compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, the company continues to promote organizational structure optimization projects and carry out operating cost management projects, the savings offset some of the adverse effects of rising commodity prices, the increase in ton cost is only slightly higher than the ton price, and the gross profit margin is relatively stable; on the other hand, it is expected that some offline activities will be affected by the epidemic, and the cost will be narrowed.
Scene recovery superimposed channel intensive ploughing, heavy beer is expected to achieve high growth. Wusu large item catering scene accounts for a high proportion, 1664 night shows and other entertainment channels account for a high proportion, with the continuous recovery of high-potential channels, and continue to increase the promotion of circulation channels, the middle and high-end categories are expected to return to the higher growth center; at the same time, the second adjustment of BU will help to strengthen inter-regional coordination, speed up channel intensive cultivation, and further strengthen high-end kinetic energy.
In addition, the 23-year cost increase is expected to narrow month-on-month, of which barley lock prices have increased significantly, glass bottles, aluminum cans have risen, cartons, oil prices have declined. Overall, scene repair, upgrade continuation, cost pressure relief, performance flexibility can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: under the background of the aggravation of the epidemic in the past 22 years, it is not easy to achieve a simultaneous rise in volume and price. With the 23-year scene recovery superimposed channel intensive cultivation, optimistic about the resilience of heavy beer recovery, is expected to achieve high growth. Adjusted for profit forecasts according to the latest performance forecast, the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 140.39 million 160.52 billion yuan, 12.9% compared with the same period last year, 12.9%, 12.64%, 27.1% and 20.6%, respectively, and the EPS is 2.61 and 3.320.00 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price on February 7, 2023. The PE is 45.4, 35.7 and 29.6X, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated; the cost of raw materials has risen more than expected; and high-end competition has intensified.