Forecast profit growth of 8.3% in 2022 compared with the same period last year
The company forecasts 2022 operating income / sales / ASP/ homing net profit compared with the same period last year + 7.0 "2.4max" 4.5kg 8.3%, single 4Q22 operating income / sales / ASP/ homing net profit year-on-year-4.0 4Q22 11.4pm 8.4max 33.6%. Due to the recurrence of the 4Q22 epidemic, market expectations have been lowered, and this performance is basically in line with market expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
4Q22 due to frequent outbreaks lead to periodic sales pressure, resulting in a slight pressure on the income side, but the trend of structural upgrading remains unchanged. Due to the high closeness of the current drink scene of 4Q22, and the high pre-stock base brought by the superimposed 4Q21 in advance of the Spring Festival, the total sales performance, including some large items, is slightly under pressure. we estimate that Wusu sales for the whole year have declined by about high digits, and ultra-high-end 1664 sales have also declined due to damage to night show channels. However, the accelerated growth of mid-and high-end products is still driving the upgrading of the company's structure, and we estimate that Le Bao will increase by double digits. 4Q22 continued to upgrade against the structural trend and reduced promotional activities led to an 8.4% increase in ASP in a single quarter, faster than the 4.2% year-on-year growth rate of 9M22.
4Q22 ton cost continued to increase under the influence of superimposed tax rates, profit margins fell slightly 2ppt. On the cost side, according to Wind data, the price of aluminum / cartons / glass bottles in packaging materials in 2022 is + 5.5% year on year, while the price of imported barley continues double-digit year-on-year growth. Under the combined influence, the trend of high cost continues. At the same time, the company enjoys an one-time tax preference in 2021, which brings a low base in the same period, and the two factors hedge the corresponding contraction measures on the expense side due to the impact of the epidemic, resulting in a slight decline in 4Q22 profit margin 2ppt, which is flat for the whole year.
We believe that the quarter-on-quarter improvement in 2023 will be very obvious. On the revenue side, we expect that due to the high base of 1Q23 in the same period last year, the pressure of sales growth may still exist, but as the 2Q23 market begins to gradually enter the peak season, we expect sales to improve significantly, especially for high-end products. In terms of cost, due to the upward pressure on prices such as raw materials, we expect the unit-ton cost to rise slightly in 2023, but the pressure on gross profit margin driven by structural upgrading is limited.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the impact of taxes on profits or continued upward pressure on costs, we have lowered our annual profit forecast for 2022-23-24 by 4.4% to 1.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.24 billion yuan, and we maintain the target price of 135 yuan, corresponding to 2023 shock 24 42x32X Phand E, the current stock price corresponds to 36/28.5XP/E, and the target price has 13.8% upward space compared with the current stock price. Maintain an industry rating that outperforms.
Risk.
As a result of the repeated epidemic, the opening of current drinking channels is not as expected, costs rise, competition intensifies, price increases are not smooth, poor channel management, food safety.