Forecast deduction non-net profit decreased by 23.45% compared with the same period last year.
The company issued a 2022 performance forecast: operating income in 2022 was 2.775 billion yuan, down 15.09% from the same period last year. The return net profit was 1.589 billion yuan, an increase of 21.46% over the same period last year (mainly due to the investment income from the sale of some shares in Tebao Biology). The deduction of non-net profit was 846 million yuan, a decrease of 23.45% over the same period last year (mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and collection), in line with our expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
Income in the fourth quarter alone was affected by the epidemic. The company's 4Q22 operating income was 676 million yuan, down 16.8% from the same period last year and 5.0% from the previous year; the net profit from the home was 186 million yuan, down 22.6% from the same period last year and 15.4% from the previous year; deducting 185 million yuan from non-net profit, the performance in the fourth quarter alone was affected by the epidemic.
The company's insulin market share continues to increase. In 2022, the company promoted the further growth of insulin product sales by further increasing hospital coverage and other measures. Among them, the sales of human insulin series products maintained medium-to-high single-digit growth, and insulin analogue products doubled compared with the same period last year. We believe that the sales of the company's existing products are expected to grow steadily, and the launch of new products will bring incremental space.
Accelerate the process of research and development. The application for listing of the company's blockbuster product GLP-1RA Lilarutide injection has been accepted; a new drug such as gout URAT1 inhibitor has launched a clinical phase IIa study; a dual-target innovative drug for gout has been clinically approved, which has Best-in-class potential; a new drug such as diabetes, GLP-1/GIP double receptor agonist has been accepted clinically, and its potential in obesity and other indications has been tapped.
The internationalization strategy is advancing steadily. In December 2022, the company reached a cooperation agreement with Sinochem Pharmaceuticals to jointly expand the sales of GLP-1RA liraluptide injection in 17 overseas emerging markets; in February 2023, the company's application for listing license for human insulin injection was accepted by the European Drug Administration, and the company expects that if approved, it will greatly accelerate the registration process of its human insulin products in many overseas countries.
Profit forecast and valuation
As the company's 4Q22 performance was affected by the epidemic, we lowered our 2022 EPS forecast by 2.2% to 0.80 yuan (YoY+21.5%), keeping the 2023 EPS forecast unchanged (YoY-32.3%). For the first time, we introduce the EPS forecast of 0.65 yuan (YoY+20.8%) in 2024. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 times 2024 / 15.1 times earnings. We maintain the outperforming industry rating and the A-share target price of 11.12 yuan, which is 12.9% upside from the current price.
Risk.
The pressure of collective mining price reduction is higher than expected, the progress of product launch is not as expected, and the progress in pipeline research is not as expected.