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王力安防(605268):经营质量稳步提升 看好23年客户结构优化+智能工厂产能逐步释放

Wang Li Security (605268): Steady improvement in operating quality, optimistic about 23 years of customer structure optimization+gradual release of smart factory production capacity

天風證券 ·  Feb 1, 2023 00:00  · Researches

The company issued a performance forecast, the estimated 22-year net profit of returning to the mother is-0.25 million, deducting the net profit of non-return to the mother-0.45 million, mainly for the provision for bad debts in cases such as payback and bill default. In addition, the company strengthens risk control, is more cautious about engineering customer cooperation, and the customer structure is adjusted, which restricts profits; the epidemic affects the progress of order delivery, transportation and installation, resulting in a decline in performance; smart equipment production, advertising and research and development efforts have been intensified, and business costs have increased.

Revenue side: Q4 revenue decline narrowed year-on-year, 23-year new customers are expected to bring incremental orders.

According to our estimates, the company's revenue in 22 years is 2.3 billion, of which Q4 revenue is about 740 million, down 11.9% from the same period last year, which is significantly smaller than Q3-24.43%. In the past 22 years, the company has taken the initiative to adjust the customer structure and be more cautious about the cooperation with some engineering customers, resulting in short-term pressure on the revenue end, continuing to maintain cooperative relations with major real estate developers and actively opening up high-quality engineering orders. the new customers are mainly high-quality state-owned central enterprises such as Poly and Vanke, and are expected to gradually contribute batch orders in 23 years.

Profit side: intelligent factories improve production efficiency, and economies of scale are gradually released.

The company has Yongkang, Wuyi and Sichuan three major industrial parks, is one of the largest safety door enterprises in China, and has obvious advantages in the same industry. The company establishes intelligent production lines and logistics systems to improve efficiency and reduce operating costs. Changtian Intelligent Manufacturing Base won the title of the industry's first "future factory". It is expected that after the intelligent base is officially put into production, labor will be reduced by 80%. The operating cost is reduced by about 15%, and the product upgrade cycle is shortened by about 30%. We believe that the subsequent increase in production, the unit discount may be significantly reduced, so as to enhance profitability, the advantage of scale is expected to be highlighted. On the premise of maintaining the basic stability of profits, we believe that the company may be able to seize market share quickly by exchanging price for volume.

Profit forecast: we are optimistic about the improvement of the company's customer structure, the volume of high-quality strategic customers, the catalysis of superimposed real estate policies, and the gradual improvement of the business structure. Taking into account the impact of planning and provision, we adjust the profit forecast, the company's 22-24 net profit is expected to be-0.29 pm 2.54 pm 336 million (the previous value is 1.71 pm 2.67 pm 350 million), and the corresponding PE for 23-24 is 18X/13X respectively.

Risk hint: the performance forecast is only a preliminary estimate, specifically based on the 22 annual report; increased competition in the industry and market; fluctuations in the real estate industry; capacity release is not as expected; raw material price fluctuations and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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