Core ideas:
The company issued a 2022 performance forecast, which is under pressure. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.20-30 million yuan in 2022, down 84.00%-89.33% compared with the same period last year, and deducting a non-return net profit of 0.09-14 million yuan, a decrease of 92.67-95.11% over the same period last year. Q4 expects its net profit to decline by 57.34% to 91.54% year-on-year, and to deduct non-return net profit by 121.63% and 136.29% year-on-year. The main reasons for the pressure on the company's performance in 2022 are: (1) the suspension of business and the reduction of passenger flow in offline stores / institutions affected by the epidemic, (2) under the influence of the newly established women's clothing stores and medical institutions in 2021, sales and management costs have increased significantly, (3) Meixin / sub-new institutions are still in the training period, and the promotion and drainage efforts are strong.
Post-epidemic recovery superimposed new institutions gradually enter a mature period, 2023 is expected to release performance flexibility, optimistic about the future development of the company. First of all, with the optimization of epidemic prevention policy, the consumer sector ushered in a strong recovery, and the recovery of women's wear business after the epidemic is very flexible. With the main brands increasing investment in research and development and adjusting the product structure, it is expected to return to the level of rapid growth in the early stage in 2023. Secondly, as the leader of medical and beauty service institutions in the central and western regions, affected by the epidemic, the pace of store development slowed down in 2022. With the opening of Kunming Hanchen Biao and Shenzhen Milan, the layout of medical and beauty business is expected to accelerate. Third, after turning from losses to profits in 2020, the baby business has developed steadily and is expected to continue to contribute to profits. Finally, as the new women's clothing stores and medical institutions gradually enter the mature stage, as well as the mature institutions of the in vitro medical and beauty equity investment fund, it is expected to further release the performance flexibility.
Profit forecast and investment advice: it is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.06 yuan per share, 0.37 yuan per share and 0.49 yuan per share, respectively. The company's women's wear, medical beauty, and baby business mainly focus on offline consumption scenes, and their annual performance is under pressure by the epidemic. After the optimization of epidemic prevention policy, as the leader of middle and high-end women's wear and the leader of medical and beauty service institutions in the central and western regions, the company's women's wear and medical beauty business is expected to resume rapid growth and usher in a performance recovery. Using the segment valuation method, the reasonable value of the company is 31.95 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Talent risk; Medical valuation decline risk; Medical risk; Business model risk.