Event: on January 31, 2023, Power Diamond issued a 2022 performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 445-475 million, a year-on-year + 85.76% net profit of 98.28%, and a non-return net profit of RMB 4.30-450 million, which is + 87.64% higher than the same period last year. The single Q4 company expects to achieve a net profit of 0.95% 125 million yuan, 12.9% month-on-month, 0.9% 110 million yuan and 2.7% month-on-month, respectively.
The import and export data of India fluctuated in the middle of the year, and the prosperity of the nurturing drilling industry as a whole continued. According to GJEPC data, due to the uncertainty of the downstream boom and the rapid expansion of the upstream, India's cultivation drill blank import data have declined month-on-month since July and returned to positive growth in December, sending a signal of marginal recovery in the market. In December, the import value of cultivated diamond blanks was US $111 million, which was-15.5% compared with the same period last year, and the month-on-month ratio was + 44.2%. The permeability of cultivated diamond imports rose to 6.8%, compared with the same period last year + 0.9pct. In December, the export value of cultivated naked diamonds was US $102 million, which was-1.3% compared with the same period last year and-3.23% compared with the same period last year; the export permeability of cultivated diamonds reached 7.4%, which was + 1.9pct compared with the same period last year. In 2022, the import value of cultivated diamond blanks was US $1.474 billion, + 32.7% compared with the same period last year, and the export value of cultivated diamond bare diamonds was US $1.714 billion, + 50.0% compared with the same period last year.
From winter to spring, the track imagination is still the same, waiting for the company to release its capacity potential. Looking back to 2022, in the context of persistent inflation and high interest rates, the US jewelry market opened high and low. According to Mastercard data, us jewelry sales from October, November to December 24, 2022 were-3.8% and 5.4% year-on-year (positive growth from January to September). With inflationary pressures peaking and core PCE price index growth slowing, confidence in the US consumer market is expected to be further boosted and a recovery in the jewellery market is expected. Look at China, 23 years of retail is expected to usher in more brand participants, enhance the cultivation of diamond volume, strengthen consumer education, promote the further development of the industry as a whole. The acceleration of the company's production capacity layout may fully benefit from the continuous improvement of terminal drilling permeability.
Investment advice: we expect the company's EPS for the year 22 to 24 to be 3.22, 5.26, 8.73 yuan per share, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 43.3, 26.4, 16.0 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: domestic consumer market education is not as expected; overseas demand growth is declining; industry competition is intensified.