1 月30 日，国联水产发布2022 年业绩预告。
投资要点
业绩符合预期，全年扭亏为盈
根据业绩预告，2022 年公司归母净利润0.27-0.4 亿元（同增295%-389%），扣非净利润0.12-0.25 亿元（同增137%-178%）。我们预计2022Q4 归母净利润亏损0.12-0.25 亿元（同增0.3%-52%），扣非亏损0.15-0.28 亿元（同比-29%至31%）。公司全年业绩实现扭亏为盈，系国内业务强劲增长、预制菜新品快速放量以及上游养殖业务剥离所推动。
关注预制菜进展，定增有望发力
公司是国内首家对虾、罗非鱼双BAP 四星认证企业，也是国内最大的水产上市企业和规模最大的对虾加工销售企业，在产品研发、原料采购、渠道铺设等方面领先行业。当前公司坚持聚焦预制菜进行商业模式升级，产品端逐步向以预制菜品为主的餐饮食材和海洋食品转型，产品以小龙虾、鱼类、对虾为主，其中小龙虾、面包虾均已破亿。此外，公司完成对上游养殖板块剥离，业务将进一步聚焦水产食品加工。渠道端公司持续深化国内市场，形成国内、国外业务双循环，2025 年国内收入目标占比超70%。募投项目投产后预制菜产能将大幅提升，其中小龙虾、对虾及鱼类预制菜分别新增产能1.53 万吨、5,37 万吨，预计2025 年募投项目产品产能将达到8.4 万吨/年。
盈利预测
我们看好公司对预制菜领域的布局；根据业绩预告，略调整公司2022-2024 年EPS 分别为0.04/0.17/0.29 元（前值为0.10/0.17/0.25 元），当前股价对应PE 分别为156/33/19倍，维持“买入”投资评级。
风险提示
宏观经济下行风险、预制菜不及预期、原材料上涨等。
On January 30, the League of Nations Aquatic products issued a 2022 performance forecast.
Main points of investment
The performance was in line with expectations and turned losses into profits throughout the year.
According to the performance forecast, the company's return net profit in 2022 is 0.27-40 million yuan (same as an increase of 295% 389%), and non-net profit is 0.12-25 million yuan (same as a 137% increase of 178%). We estimate that the net profit loss of 2022Q4 is 0.12-25 million yuan (up 0.3% by 52%) and deducts a non-profit loss of 0.15-28 million yuan (from-29% to 31% compared with the same period last year). The company's annual performance to achieve a turnaround is driven by the strong growth of domestic business, the rapid release of new prefabricated dishes and the divestiture of upstream farming business.
Pay attention to the progress of prepared dishes, and it is expected to increase.
The company is the first domestic shrimp and tilapia double BAP four-star certification enterprise, and it is also the largest listed aquatic product enterprise and the largest shrimp processing and sales enterprise in China, leading the industry in product research and development, raw material procurement, channel laying and so on. At present, the company insists on upgrading its business model by focusing on prefabricated dishes, and the products are gradually transformed to catering ingredients and marine food based on prefabricated dishes, with crayfish, fish and prawns as the main products, among which crayfish and bread shrimp have exceeded 100 million. In addition, the company has completed the divestiture of the upstream aquaculture sector, and the business will further focus on aquatic food processing. Channel-end companies continue to deepen the domestic market, forming a double cycle of domestic and foreign business, accounting for more than 70% of the domestic revenue target in 2025. After the fund-raising project is put into production, the production capacity of prefabricated vegetables will be greatly increased, of which crayfish, prawns and fish prefabricated vegetables will increase by 15300 tons and 537 million tons respectively, and it is estimated that the production capacity of the project will reach 84,000 tons per year in 2025.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company's layout in the field of prefabricated food; according to the performance forecast, the company's EPS for 2022-2024 is 0.04 shock 0.17 pound 0.29 yuan respectively (the previous value is 0.10 pound 0.17 shock 0.25 yuan), and the current stock price is corresponding to the PE of 156-33-19, maintaining the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic downside risks, lower-than-expected premade dishes, rising raw materials, and so on.
