公司2022 年业绩符合预期，自22Q3 起已迎来经营拐点，23 年有望迎来利润释放、人效提升周期。我们认为，证券IT 是23 年成长确定性最高的计算机细分赛道，公司作为行业龙头中期成长拐点已现，继续强烈推荐。
事件：公司发布2022 年度业绩预告，2022 全年实现营业收入65.03 亿元，YoY +18.31%；归母净利润10.87 亿元，YoY -25.72%；扣非归母净利润10.91亿元，YoY +15.30%。
22Q4 单季业绩符合预期，疫后经营状况全面快速恢复。根据业绩预告测算，公司22Q4 单季度实现营收27.66 亿元，YoY +16.42%；归母净利润10.76亿元，YoY +37.95%；扣非归母净利润7.61 亿元，YoY +13.19%。与22Q3相比，Q4 收入增速有所下滑，我们认为主要系11-12 月份疫情原因拖累项目实施交付所致，而对应延后的收入可能会在23H1 确认。2022 年归母净利润下降，主要系资本市场波动导致公司所持金融资产公允价值变动收益同比大幅下降（21 年全年约4.90 亿元，21 年前三季度约3.70 亿元，22 年前三季度约-0.02 亿元）。2022 年扣非归母净利润增长且增速与收入基本匹配，我们认为主要系积极费控下成本费用增长得以控制，但同时与新办公楼折旧、股份支付费用摊销（预估全年合计约）等互相抵销所致，预计管理效率的改善在23 年将更明显体现，收入-利润的剪刀差会得以凸显。
新一轮成长起点已至，坚定看好公司23 年表现。我们认为，公司自22Q3 起实质上已进入新一轮成长周期，23 年表现更值得期待：1、重要会议已结束，资本市场改革有望加速，前期出台的政策如基金投顾、公募Retis 等将持续释放红利，同时全面注册制等新政策有望推出和落地；2、23 年有望成证券行业核心系统信创规模化落地的元年，信创驱动下买卖方核心系统的升级换代有望提速，在此背景下公司核心产品如UF3.0/O45 规模化落地面临重要契机，其中UF3.0 已于2022 年12 月26 日在东方证券上线新一代运营系统，2023年1 月5 日在光大上线账户系统，核心系统成熟度逐步得到大客户验证；3、历经19-21 年大规模人员扩张后公司积极实施管理优化，费控效果已开始显现，23 年有望迎来利润释放、人效提升周期。
维持“强烈推荐”投资评级。预计2022-2024 年营收65.01/80.34/98.40 亿元，净利润10.91/17.68/21.89 亿元。维持强烈推荐。
The company's 2022 performance is in line with expectations, since 22Q3 has ushered in an operating inflection point, 23 years is expected to usher in a profit release, human efficiency improvement cycle. We believe that Securities IT is the computer subdivision track with the highest certainty of growth in 23 years, and the company as a leading medium-term growth inflection point in the industry has been now and continues to be strongly recommended.
Event: the company issued a forecast of its annual performance in 2022, with operating income of 6.503 billion yuan, YoY + 18.31%, net profit of 1.087 billion yuan, YoY-25.72%, and non-return net profit of 1.091 billion yuan, YoY + 15.30%.
The single-quarter performance of 22Q4 is in line with expectations, and the business condition has fully and rapidly recovered after the epidemic. According to the performance forecast, the company's 22Q4 realized revenue of 2.766 billion yuan in a single quarter, YoY + 16.42%, net profit of 1.076 billion yuan, YoY + 37.95%, and non-return net profit of 761 million yuan, YoY + 13.19%. Compared with 22Q3, Q4 revenue growth has slowed down, which we believe is mainly due to the delay in project delivery due to the epidemic in November-December, and the corresponding delayed revenue may be recognized in 23H1. The decline in net profit in 2022 is mainly due to fluctuations in the capital market, which led to a sharp decline in the fair value of financial assets held by the company (about 490 million yuan in 21 years, 370 million yuan in the first three quarters of 21 years, and-2 million yuan in the first three quarters of 22 years). Deducting the growth of non-homed net profit in 2022 and the growth rate basically matches the income, we believe that it is mainly due to the control of cost growth under active cost control, but at the same time offset with the depreciation of new office buildings and share payment amortization (estimated for the whole year), it is expected that the improvement in management efficiency will be more obvious in 23 years, and the income-profit scissors gap will be highlighted.
The starting point of a new round of growth has arrived, and we are firmly optimistic about the company's 23-year performance. We believe that the company has essentially entered a new round of growth cycle since 22Q3, and the 23-year performance is more to be expected: 1. The important meeting is over, the capital market reform is expected to accelerate, and the previous policies such as fund investment and public offering of Retis will continue to release dividends, while new policies such as comprehensive registration system are expected to be launched and landed. 2. 23 years is expected to be the first year of the large-scale landing of Xinchuang, the core system of the securities industry, and the upgrading of the core system of buyers and sellers driven by Xinchuang is expected to be speeded up. Under this background, the company's core products such as UF3.0/O45 face important opportunities for large-scale landing. Among them, UF3.0 launched a new generation of operating system in Oriental Securities on December 26, 2022 and Everbright online account system on January 5, 2023. The maturity of the core system is gradually verified by major customers. 3. After 19-21 years of large-scale personnel expansion, the company has actively implemented management optimization, and the effect of cost control has begun to appear. 23 years is expected to usher in a cycle of profit release and human efficiency improvement.
Maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 is 80.340.98 billion yuan, and the net profit is 10.91 billion yuan. Maintain a strong recommendation.
Risk hint: customer IT expenditure has dropped sharply; new product expansion is not as expected; investment income has fallen sharply.