The company's 2022 performance is in line with expectations, since 22Q3 has ushered in an operating inflection point, 23 years is expected to usher in a profit release, human efficiency improvement cycle. We believe that Securities IT is the computer subdivision track with the highest certainty of growth in 23 years, and the company as a leading medium-term growth inflection point in the industry has been now and continues to be strongly recommended.
Event: the company issued a forecast of its annual performance in 2022, with operating income of 6.503 billion yuan, YoY + 18.31%, net profit of 1.087 billion yuan, YoY-25.72%, and non-return net profit of 1.091 billion yuan, YoY + 15.30%.
The single-quarter performance of 22Q4 is in line with expectations, and the business condition has fully and rapidly recovered after the epidemic. According to the performance forecast, the company's 22Q4 realized revenue of 2.766 billion yuan in a single quarter, YoY + 16.42%, net profit of 1.076 billion yuan, YoY + 37.95%, and non-return net profit of 761 million yuan, YoY + 13.19%. Compared with 22Q3, Q4 revenue growth has slowed down, which we believe is mainly due to the delay in project delivery due to the epidemic in November-December, and the corresponding delayed revenue may be recognized in 23H1. The decline in net profit in 2022 is mainly due to fluctuations in the capital market, which led to a sharp decline in the fair value of financial assets held by the company (about 490 million yuan in 21 years, 370 million yuan in the first three quarters of 21 years, and-2 million yuan in the first three quarters of 22 years). Deducting the growth of non-homed net profit in 2022 and the growth rate basically matches the income, we believe that it is mainly due to the control of cost growth under active cost control, but at the same time offset with the depreciation of new office buildings and share payment amortization (estimated for the whole year), it is expected that the improvement in management efficiency will be more obvious in 23 years, and the income-profit scissors gap will be highlighted.
The starting point of a new round of growth has arrived, and we are firmly optimistic about the company's 23-year performance. We believe that the company has essentially entered a new round of growth cycle since 22Q3, and the 23-year performance is more to be expected: 1. The important meeting is over, the capital market reform is expected to accelerate, and the previous policies such as fund investment and public offering of Retis will continue to release dividends, while new policies such as comprehensive registration system are expected to be launched and landed. 2. 23 years is expected to be the first year of the large-scale landing of Xinchuang, the core system of the securities industry, and the upgrading of the core system of buyers and sellers driven by Xinchuang is expected to be speeded up. Under this background, the company's core products such as UF3.0/O45 face important opportunities for large-scale landing. Among them, UF3.0 launched a new generation of operating system in Oriental Securities on December 26, 2022 and Everbright online account system on January 5, 2023. The maturity of the core system is gradually verified by major customers. 3. After 19-21 years of large-scale personnel expansion, the company has actively implemented management optimization, and the effect of cost control has begun to appear. 23 years is expected to usher in a cycle of profit release and human efficiency improvement.
Maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 is 80.340.98 billion yuan, and the net profit is 10.91 billion yuan. Maintain a strong recommendation.
Risk hint: customer IT expenditure has dropped sharply; new product expansion is not as expected; investment income has fallen sharply.