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永辉超市(601933):归母净亏损预收窄30.5% 关注疫后复苏业绩弹性

Yonghui Supermarket (601933): Guimu's net loss is expected to narrow by 30.5%, focusing on the elasticity of post-epidemic recovery performance

東吳證券 ·  Jan 31, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Key points of investment

Incident: On January 31, 2023, the company issued the 2022 annual performance forecast loss announcement. The company expects net profit to the mother in 2022 to be 2.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss of 30.5%; after deducting non-net profit - 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss decrease of 37.4%. Due to the impact of the October-November 2022 epidemic on offline commerce, the company's net profit for the whole year fell short of our expectations.

According to the company's performance forecast, 2022Q4 achieved net profit of -1.85 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year; after deducting non-net profit - 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss reduction of 12.3%.

The company's projected performance loss was mainly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuations in the fair value of financial assets: ① Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, many stores were suspended for a short period of time, and the shopping demand and consumer sentiment of offline stores of residents in major cities were greatly affected. ② The company confirmed a loss of 640 million yuan from changes in fair value throughout the year, of which the Q4 company's fair value change income was about 170 million yuan. The company expects to accrue long-term equity investment and other long-term asset impairment of about 600 million yuan throughout the year.

The growth rate of the company's online business sales is high and the loss margin is narrowing. In the future, it will continue to invest in technology to consolidate the moat. The company invested about 700 million yuan in technology and 400 million yuan in 2022H2 throughout the year.

In 2022, the company's online sales were about 15.9 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the previous year; the online business lost 4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss of 400 million yuan. The rapid growth rate of online business has benefited to a certain extent from the epidemic. The company's online business sales increased by about 36% year-on-year in 2022Q4.

The company continued to consolidate its internal strength during the pandemic, and performance is expected to recover after the epidemic is released. The company has continuously adjusted its stores, optimized the quality of assets, and slightly increased short-term costs. Under the influence of the October-November epidemic, many of the company's stores were suspended. After the epidemic control was liberalized in December, the company's same-store revenue was corrected year-on-year. The supermarket industry has high operating leverage, so the growth rate of same-store revenue will determine the company's performance to a large extent. The correction of same-store revenue in December reflects the company's better operating resilience.

Profit prediction and investment rating: The company is a leading supermarket chain enterprise with leading domestic business scale and supply chain strength. As the epidemic recovers and consumers' willingness to spend increases, the company's future operations are expected to continue to improve, and its performance is also highly resilient. Considering that the impact of the 2022 pandemic was higher than expected, we lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2022-24 from 1.3/11.5/1.46 billion yuan to -27.4/30/650 million yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies, store openings fall short of expectations, consumer spending intentions fall short of expectations, repeated epidemics, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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