The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan in 2022.
The company issued an announcement of pre-loss in 2022: the company is expected to achieve a return net profit of-2.74 billion yuan in 2022, a loss reduction of 1.2 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2021, and an estimated deduction of non-return net profit of-2.4 billion yuan, a loss reduction of 1.44 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2021.
In a single quarter, the net profit of 4Q2022 is expected to be-1.853 billion yuan, that of 4Q2021 is-1.766 billion yuan, that of 4Q2021 is-1.758 billion yuan, and that of 4Q2021 is-2.005 billion yuan.
Asset impairment affects profit performance and increases digital investment in science and technology
In terms of main business, the company was affected by the epidemic in 2022 and more stores were suspended for a short time. During the epidemic, the company continued to promote organizational change, increase investment in digital science and technology; stores continue to optimize, optimize asset quality, a small increase in short-term costs. At the same time, the company continues to deepen the strategic positioning of the "fresh-based, customer-centered omni-channel digital retail platform". In 2022, the company invested about 700 million yuan in science and technology, and online business sales increased by 21 percent, with a loss of 440 million yuan. reduce the loss by 400 million yuan compared with 2021. With the warming of the economic environment, the continuous promotion of the company's digital transformation and the further optimization of store layout, the company's various business indicators have shown a good trend, and the same store has become a regular store in December 2022.
In terms of non-main business, the trading price of the financial assets held by the company in the secondary market decreased significantly in 2022, with a recognized fair value change loss of 640 million yuan in 2022, mainly due to a decrease of 524 million yuan in KarmanTopco L.P fair value compared with the beginning of 2022. At the same time, the company tests the impairment of some long-term assets and makes provision for impairment. According to preliminary estimates, the company is expected to provision for long-term equity investment and other long-term assets impairment of about 600 million yuan.
Downgrade profit forecast and maintain "overweight" rating
The lower-than-expected performance of the company is mainly due to the loss of changes in the fair value of the company and the provision for impairment of long-term assets totaling about 1.24 billion yuan, which has a greater impact on the company's profit performance. At the same time, the company increases its digital construction efforts and continues to optimize its stores, which leads to an increase in costs in the short term, and also affects the company's profitability to a certain extent. In view of the fact that there is still some uncertainty about the effectiveness of the company's transformation and the need for more operating data to verify, we temporarily reduce our forecast for the company's 2022 shock 2023 / 2024 EPS to-0.30 shock 0.002 shock 0.02 yuan (the original forecast value is-0.14 shock 0.03 pound 0.07 yuan). The company actively seeks business transformation, the profit side continues to reduce losses, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the revenue and profit of the company's warehousing member store is not up to expectations, and the effect of digital reform is not as good as expected.