Events:
The company issues the 2022 annual performance forecast. In 2022, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 8 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan, from-6.46% to + 5.23% compared with the same period last year, and is expected to deduct a net profit of 7.7 billion yuan to 8.7 billion yuan, from-8.77% to + 3.08%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the net profit is expected to be 1.406 billion yuan to 2.406 billion yuan, from-39.36% to + 3.77% compared with the same period last year, and from-34.61% to + 11.89% from the previous year.
Securities business income against the trend growth, market share further increased 1) brokerage business: 2022 A-share daily average stock base turnover of 1.02 trillion yuan,-10% year-on-year. On the other hand, the company's stock-based turnover is basically the same as the same period last year, and the increase in market share drives the growth of business income compared with the same period last year. 2) the two financing businesses: the average daily balance of two financing in 2022 is 1.62 trillion yuan, which is-8% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of the company's continuous increase in market share, we expect the company's net interest income in 2022 to be the same as the same period last year, better than the industry. 3) Investment banking business: the amount of corporate bond underwriting in 2022 was 3.9 billion yuan, + 30% compared with the same period last year, and the market share of bond underwriting in 2022 was 0.04%, increasing 0.01pct over the same period last year.
The scale of fund issuance declined sharply in 2022, and the company's fund business was under pressure. The prosperity of the secondary market declined in 2022. The issuance scale of the whole market fund was-50% compared with the same period last year, of which the issuance scale of partial stock funds was-79% year on year. Against the background of the decline in market fund sales, the company's financial e-commerce service business income has declined compared with the same period last year. By the end of 2022, Tian Tian Fund had sold a total of 8575 funds, which was + 25% of the same period last year, ranking first in the number of consignments, up 1 place from 2021. As fund market performance and sentiment repair and resident wealth continues to flow into the capital market, the company is expected to continue to benefit from its leading market position and platform advantages.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We maintain our previous profit forecast that the company's revenue in 2023 and 2024 is estimated to be 163yuan and 19.7 billion yuan respectively, which is + 22% and + 21% year-on-year, and the net profit is 109yuan and 13.1 billion yuan respectively, and + 20% and + 20% respectively. We believe that the company still has long-term sustainable growth, giving the company 35 times PE for 23 years, with a target price of 28.70 yuan, a 24% increase in the stock price and a "buy" rating.