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东方财富(300059):2022年阿尔法属性得以体现

Oriental Wealth (300059): Alpha attributes will be reflected in 2022

華泰證券 ·  Jan 28, 2023 00:00  · Researches

2022 the net profit of the parent is 80-9 billion yuan, an increase of-6.5% over the same period last year. The company issued a performance forecast. The net profit of 2022 was 80-9 billion yuan, with an increase of-6.46%, 5.23%, 22Q4, 14.06-2.406 billion yuan, and-39.37%, 3.76%. We believe that the company's net profit in 2022 is expected to be flat or slightly increased compared with last year, and the 22Q4 return net profit is expected to be more than 2 billion yuan. Factors affecting the performance of the company: 1) the amount of A-share transactions fell by 12% in 22 years; 2) the issuance scale of A-share funds decreased compared with the same period last year, and the fund sales business was affected; 3) the market share of Dongcai brokerage and fund business may steadily increase, so that the company's performance is better than the market performance. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 22-24 is 0.66 PE 0.79 39.9xPE 0.96 yuan (the previous value is 0.72), which is comparable to the company's 23-year average of 39.9x (Wind), giving the company 23e 39.9xPE with a target price of 31.49 yuan (previous value 24.35), maintaining the "buy" rating.

Brokerage business: the increase in market share is expected to push 22Q4 revenue to be flat or slightly increase compared with the same period last year. According to Wind data, the transaction value of A shares in 2022 was 222.9 trillion yuan, down 11.8% from 2019 to 2022. The turnover of A shares in 2019-2022 was 126.0 yuan, 204.0 yuan, 254.8 yuan and 222.9 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 40.6%, 61.8%, 24.9% and-11.8%. We believe that Dongcai's brokerage and financing business revenue growth performance is expected to be better than the market transaction volume growth. The trading volume of 22Q4 A stock market is 50.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24.2% compared with the same period last year and 15.4% lower than that of 22Q3. We believe that the increase in the market share of 22Q4 Dongcai brokerage business is expected to promote the brokerage business income to be the same or slightly increase compared with the same period last year. The scale of 22Q4 financing business may decline slightly compared with the same period last year.

Fund business: the performance is better than the market, and the market share is expected to continue to rise. according to market variables, the size of A-share newly issued funds decreased by 51.0% in 2022 compared with the same period last year, and the size of non-stock-based IPOs decreased by 50.0% compared with the same period last year. The size of 22Q4 A-share newly issued funds decreased by 44.4% compared with the same period last year, while the size of non-commodity-based new issues decreased by 41.8% compared with the same period last year. 22Q3 Dongcai non-goods-based sales retained 627.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year. The stock plus mixed holding scale is 455.1 billion yuan, down 6.0% from the same period last year. As can be seen in the first three quarters, the performance of Dongcai fund business is better than that of the fund market as a whole.

We believe that the market share of Dongcai 22Q4 non-goods base is expected to further increase.

2023: expect marginal upward

We believe that 2022 is the year to test Dongcai's alpha attributes. The trading volume of the A-share market and the size of newly issued funds declined in 2022, and the net profits of traditional brokerages also declined to varying degrees in the first three quarters of 22. The net profit of Dongcai in the past 22 years basically reflects the growth attribute of its leading industry. We believe that 23 years of market variables or improvement, Dongcai growth is expected to be better reflected. Consider the negative impact of 22-year market variables, reduce the revenue forecast, consider the improvement of the company's operating efficiency, reduce the expense rate forecast. It is estimated that the income in 22-24 is 132.12 159.89 billion yuan (the previous value is 150.33), the net profit is 86.56 million, and the net profit is 10.492 million (14.628 billion yuan, 95.31).

Risk hint: the market transaction amount is lower than expected, and the increase in Dongcai market share is lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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