The company publishes the 2022 annual performance notice. The company disclosed its 2022 performance forecast on January 20, 2023, and is expected to achieve a net profit of 809 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year net profit of-6.46% and 5.23%. According to the company's 2022 estimate, the company's 2022Q4 net profit range for a single quarter is 1.406-2.406 billion yuan, which is 1.99% higher than that of the same period last year.
2022Q4 bond pullback lowers proprietary income. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the CSI index closed at 225.24, up or down-0.14%, while bonds accounted for 70.85% of the company's transactional financial assets (2022H1 caliber), which will lower the company's proprietary income. However, for the whole year, the company's proprietary income is still growing. The company's 2022Q1~3 self-operating income is 994 million yuan, + 61.36% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the substantial increase in the company's financial investment scale in recent years. The company's 2022Q3 financial investment scale is 67.79 billion yuan, an increase of 69.51% over the same period last year.
Benefiting from the flow advantage, the company's brokerage business shows resilience. The market turnover was low in 2022, with an annual turnover of 223.96 trillion yuan (one-way),-12.94% compared with the same period last year, while the company's stock-based trading volume was basically flat. It is estimated that the brokerage business has a market share of 4.50% in 2022, an increase of 0.30pct over 2021.
It shows the counter-cyclical situation in the market downturn, and the company will still benefit from the traffic advantage in the future.
The newly issued fund is in the doldrums, and the company's consignment revenue has declined, but the ranking is stable. Affected by the market fluctuations in 2022, the growth rate of the scale of public offering funds has declined, while the growth rate of newly issued funds has been depressed. According to the fund association, the size of public offering funds reached 26.03 trillion yuan in December 2022, an increase of 1.84 percent over the end of 2021. According to Wind, 14951.58 billion new funds were issued in 2022,-49.52% compared with the same period last year. According to the Fund Association, 2022Q3 (Tiantian Fund + Dongcai Securities) shares / mixed public offering funds have a retention size of 482.7 billion yuan, compared with-9.81%, and the market ranks third steadily. It is expected that the decline in the company's consignment business is mainly due to the decline in the size of newly issued funds and a decline in flow income.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's card position is the flow entrance to the development of the wealth management industry, and it is an excellent target for both growth and flexibility in the industry. Medium-and short-term valuation is greatly affected by the industry beta and GDR issuance. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 85.61 yuan, 115.68 yuan and 12.607 billion yuan. Considering the company's growth and historical valuation, the company will be valued at 30XPE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 26.26 yuan per share, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint. Excessive fluctuations in the equity market, intensified competition in the industry, stricter supervision in the industry, and so on.