Event: the company issued a forecast of its annual performance in 2012. it is expected that the net profit for the whole year will be 22-2.6 billion yuan, of which Q4 will achieve a net profit of 9. 5-1.35 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations.
With the same 30-fold increase in annual performance, the new energy industry has realized its magnificent demeanor. 1) the company's full-year return net profit increased significantly by 3122% and 3707%, mainly due to the increase in volume and price of lithium products: ① volume:
Chengdu Rongjie Phase I lithium salt project completed and put into operation at the beginning of the year led to a substantial increase in lithium salt sales, while lithium concentrate sales are also expected to increase compared with the same period last year; ② price: the industry supply shortage continued in 2022, driving lithium prices upward. According to SMM,2022, the annual average price of electric carbon / lithium concentrate increased by 298% and 375% respectively. 2) Q4 performance continued to increase month-on-month. The net profit center of the company's Q4 is 1.15 billion yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 2693% and 69% of the same price. The reason for the continued high Q4 performance month-on-month may be that the climbing volume of the ① Chengdu Rongjie lithium salt project has led to an increase in production quarter by quarter, and the price of ② has increased from the expected month-on-month (Q4 electric carbon market price is + 15% to 552,000 yuan / ton LCE).
With the steady progress of the Yuanyang Dam project, the company's production capacity is expanding rapidly. 1) the environmental impact assessment of the planning of the upper park has been accepted by the Ecological Environment Bureau, and the construction of the 2.5 million tons / year plant selection project of Yuanyang Dam is expected to be accelerated. According to the company announcement, at present, the Ganzi Prefecture Ecological Environment Bureau has accepted the environmental assessment of the superior park. After the upper EIA is passed, the Yuanyang Dam project will be able to declare the EIA. The EIA of the project is simpler than that of the park, or it can be approved quickly. On the whole, the Yuanyangba project is expected to be put into production in 2023; 2) after the landing of Yuanyangba, the company's lithium concentrate capacity will be expanded from 70,000 tons to 200000 tons, and is expected to further expand to 470000 tons in the future.
After the Yuanyangba project is put into production, the company will have a mineral processing capacity of 2.5 million tons / year, mining capacity of 105 million tons / year and lithium concentrate of 200,000 tons / year. The follow-up company may continue to expand its mining capacity to 2.5 million tons / year to match its mineral processing capacity, when the lithium concentrate can be further increased to 470000 tons; 3) the methyl card mining area is rich in resources and has a large number of potential veins. as the company with the most experience in mining in Sichuan, the company has outstanding competitive advantages and may further increase its reserves in the long term.
In the next 2-3 years, the industry will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, and lithium prices are expected to remain high. 1) supply side: the bottleneck of the industrial chain is transferred to the mine side + the upper and middle reaches of capital expenditure mismatch + most of the high-quality resources have been excavated, the production expansion cycle has been greatly lengthened, and the volume is slow; 2) on the demand side: new energy vehicles and energy storage track long slope thick snow, will support the sustained high demand of the lithium industry.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the net profit is expected to be 24.2,38.2 and 5 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024. Considering the high prosperity of the lithium industry, the company has expanded its mining and smelting capacity and maintained its "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the demand of the industry is lower than expected, the supply is higher than expected, and the company's production capacity is not as expected.