事件：公司发布2022 年度业绩预告，2022 年公司预计实现归母净利润55.5~59.5 亿元，同比+151.32%~169.43%，预计实现扣非归母净利润53.8~57.8 亿元，同比+147.91%~166.35%。单季度看，公司22Q4 归母净利润11.9~15.9 亿元，同比+81.7%~142.8%，环比-18.2%~+9.35%，扣非归母净利润11.2~15.2 亿元，同比+70.3%~131.0%，环比-18.0%~+11.3%。
Q4 出货量稳定增长，单吨净利下降但仍大幅领先行业。预计公司22Q4 电解液出货量11 万吨，环比增长20%+，单吨净利1.1 万元/吨，环比下降10%以上，主要受六氟价格下行影响，但仍大幅领先于行业，预计23 年公司电解液出货60 万吨，单吨净利0.8 万元/吨。公司22Q4 磷酸铁出货1 万吨，单吨净利0.5 万元/吨，受部分新增磷酸铁产能投产影响盈利能力有所下降，预计23 年公司磷酸铁出货20-25 万吨，单吨净利约3000-4000 元/吨。
一体化布局持续完善，成本优势继续强化。公司拟以3.83 亿元收购东莞腾威85%股权布局胶粘剂，且投资3.76 亿元建设8 万吨液体DTD，DTD 能提高电池充放电性能及循环次数，持续完善原材料一体化布局，强化成本优势。
电解液行业已处于底部，下半年或迎来周期反转。目前六氟以及添加剂（VC、FEC 等）价格都位于行业二三线企业附近，行业已处于底部区域，随着上半年电解液行业竞争进一步加剧，叠加下游企业大幅压价，六氟和添加剂行业除龙头以外其他企业或都将面临亏损，高成本产能被迫出清，下半年随着需求逐步恢复，电解液在六氟及添加剂带动下或迎来周期反转。
投资建议：考虑电解液行业竞争激烈且下游持续压价，我们下调公司2022-2024 年归母净利润至56.2/63.5/71.3 亿元（原预测为58.0/74.9/85.2亿元），同比增长154.4%/13.0%/12.3%，对应PE 为16.1x/14.3x/12.7x，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：电动车销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格大幅上涨
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022. In 2022, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.55 billion yuan to 5.95 billion yuan, which is expected to be deducted from 5.38 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. 166.35% compared with the same period last year. In a single quarter, the company's 22Q4 net profit was 1.19-1.59 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 81.7%-142.8%,-18.2%-9.35%, and deducting the non-parent net profit of 1.12-15.2 billion yuan, + 70.3%, 131.0% and 11.3%, respectively.
Q4 shipments grew steadily, with a decline in net profit per ton but still leading the industry. It is estimated that the company's 22Q4 electrolyte shipment volume is 110000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20%, a net profit of 11,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of more than 10% from the previous month, mainly affected by the downward price of hexafluorine, but still substantially ahead of the industry. The company is expected to ship 600000 tons of electrolyte in 23 years, with a net profit of 80,000 yuan per ton. The company 22Q4 iron phosphate shipment 10,000 tons, per ton net profit of 0.5 million yuan / ton, affected by some of the new iron phosphate capacity put into production, profitability has declined, 23 years the company is expected to ship iron phosphate 20-250000 tons, per ton net profit of about 3000-4000 yuan / ton.
The integrated layout continues to improve, and the cost advantage continues to be strengthened. The company plans to buy 85% of Dongguan Tengwei equity layout adhesive with 383 million yuan, and invest 376 million yuan to build 80,000 tons of liquid DTD,DTD can improve battery charge and discharge performance and cycle times, continuously improve the integrated layout of raw materials, and strengthen the cost advantage.
The electrolyte industry is already at the bottom and may usher in a cycle reversal in the second half of the year. At present, the prices of hexafluorine and additives (VC, FEC, etc.) are located near the second and third tier enterprises of the industry, and the industry is already at the bottom. With the further intensification of competition in the electrolyte industry in the first half of the year, the prices of downstream enterprises are greatly reduced, hexafluoride and additives industries except the leading enterprises may face losses, high-cost production capacity will be forced to clear, and the demand will gradually recover in the second half of the year. The electrolyte may usher in a cycle reversal driven by hexafluorine and additives.
Investment suggestion: considering the fierce competition in the electrolyte industry and the continuous price reduction downstream, we reduced the company's 2022-2024 net profit to 56.2cm 74.9 billion yuan (originally predicted to be 58.0x74.9 / 8.52 billion yuan), an increase of 154.4%, 13.0% and 12.3%, corresponding to 16.1x/14.3x/12.7x for PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and raw material prices rise sharply.
