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兴发集团(600141)公司点评报告:磷化工景气与新材料业务推动业绩快速增长

Xingfa Group (600141) Company Review Report: Phosphating Chemical Boom and New Materials Business Drive Rapid Performance Growth

中原證券 ·  Jan 19, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: the company announced a pre-increase announcement on its performance in 2022, and it is estimated that the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 is 5.8 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, an increase of 36.58% Murray 41.29% over the same period last year. After deducting non-recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 6.038 billion yuan to 6.238 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 34.58% 39.04% over the same period last year.

The prosperity of the phosphorus chemical industry chain and the new materials business promote performance growth. Relying on rich phosphate rock resources, the company has built an integrated industry chain of mine, electricity and phosphorus, including glyphosate, ammonium phosphate, organosilicon and so on. On this basis, the company further extends downward, expanding the business of new materials such as food additives, special chemicals, electronic wet chemicals and so on. In 2022, the company's phosphorus chemical business remained on the rise, and the sales prices of glyphosate, phosphate rock, yellow phosphorus and other products increased in varying degrees compared with last year, and the profitability was significantly enhanced. According to Zhuochuang data, the average price of glyphosate in 2022 was 627,000 yuan / ton, up 22.28% over the same period last year; the average price of phosphate rock was 899 yuan / ton, up 80.62% over the same period last year; the average price of yellow phosphorus was 3320000 yuan / ton, up 23.58% over the same period last year; and the average price of diammonium phosphate was 2948 yuan / ton, up 37.32% from the same period last year. Benefiting from the rise in product prices, coupled with the increase in output brought about by the Inner Mongolia Xing glyphosate project and the commissioning of Houping Phosphate Mine, the company's phosphorus chemical industry performance has been improved. In addition, the market demand for partial growth products such as food additives, special chemicals and wet electronic chemicals is good, the revenue scale has increased steadily, and the operating efficiency has increased significantly. Together, the two factors contributed to the growth of the company's annual performance. Judging from the single-quarter results, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 889 million yuan and 10.89 yuan in the fourth quarter, down 37.74-49.17% from the same period last year and 13.64% MUE 29.50% from the previous month. The decline in fourth-quarter results was mainly due to the decline in prices and sales of products such as glyphosate and silicone in the fourth quarter. Overall, the company's fourth-quarter results are basically in line with expectations.

The advantage of industrial chain integration is highlighted, and the production of Houping Phosphate Mine promotes the guarantee of phosphate resources in the company. The company is rich in phosphate rock resources, phosphate ore reserves up to 267 million tons. Relying on the rich phosphate rock resources, the company deeply excavates the downstream potential of phosphorus chemical industry, forming a phosphorus chemical industry chain with many varieties, large scale, complete categories and high added value of products, and forms the industrial structure of "mine electricity phosphorus-phosphorus silicon-fertilizer". The 2 million-ton project of Houping Phosphate Mine was put into production in the fourth quarter of last year, which further enhanced the company's phosphate rock guarantee capacity. With the rapid growth of demand in the field of agrochemical and new energy, the supply and demand of phosphate rock in China has been tight since 2022, and the price continues to rise. With the support of phosphate rock price, the prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is expected to continue in the future, and the advantage of the company's integrated industrial chain is expected to be further enhanced.

The new material plate blossoms at many points, and has a strong driving force for growth in the future. In recent years, the company continues to increase the distribution of new materials business. In 2022, food additives, special chemicals and wet electronic Chenghua long-learning products are in strong demand, contributing 30% to the performance. At present, the company has become the domestic leading enterprise of DMSO, and the holding company Xingfu Electronics is at the international advanced level in the field of wet electronic chemicals. In the future, the company will continue to focus on silicon-based, sulfur-based, electronic chemicals and other new materials business. It is expected that 100000 tons of iron phosphate, 400000 tons of organosilicon monomers, 50,000 tons of photovoltaic glue, 30,000 tons of liquid glue and 20,000 tons of electronic-grade etching fluid will be put into production in 2023. For the company's new materials business to provide better growth.

Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's EPS in 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 5.36 yuan and 5.43 yuan. Based on the closing price of 30.26 yuan on January 18, the PE is 5.65 times and 5.57 times respectively. The company has a low valuation and gives the company an investment rating of "overweight" taking into account the development of the company.

Risk hint: product prices fall, new project progress is lower than expected

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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