Core ideas:
The company issued a performance forecast and achieved high performance growth. The company issued a performance forecast for 2022, which is expected to achieve operating income of 13.5 billion yuan in 2022, net profit of 212.6 billion yuan for YoY+39.41%~61.10%; and 192.4 billion yuan for non-return net profit of YoY+94.91%~141.32%;, YoY+135.52%~197.50%. In 2022, the company actively took a number of measures to ensure the normal operation of production and operation, realized the orderly delivery of customer orders, and achieved sustained growth in the business performance of electronic process equipment and electronic components throughout the year.
Multiple product lines go hand in hand, and the semiconductor equipment platform continues to expand. In 2022, driven by the rapid growth of terminal demand such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and high-performance computing, China's production lines such as integrated circuits and power semiconductors have a strong investment in expansion. The process coverage and customer penetration of the company's semiconductor equipment products have been continuously improved, and the introduction of new products such as etching machines, PVD, CVD, vertical furnaces, cleaning machines and ALD into the market has been further accelerated, realizing mass sales in the mainstream production line in the field of integrated circuits; shipments of the third generation semiconductors, power semiconductors and photovoltaic equipment are growing rapidly; vacuum heat treatment and magnetic material equipment have also made good progress in market expansion.
The advantage of technological synergy helps domestic substitution, and the leading space of semiconductor equipment is broad. The company has established a more comprehensive core technology system in semiconductor production processes such as etching, thin film deposition, oxidation / diffusion and cleaning, and has formed a cross-domain technology coverage capability to meet the downstream needs of integrated circuits, third-generation power semiconductors and photovoltaic. Technological and product-end breakthroughs have been achieved on the product side of advanced process etching machines and thin film deposition equipment (14nm), accumulating R & D, design and manufacturing capabilities of advanced technology products. The company has the technical synergy advantages of wide process coverage, multi-process integration and multiple application scenarios. At present, China has become the largest semiconductor equipment market, and there is a broad space for domestic substitutions. with the expansion of downstream wafer production lines and the improvement of localization rate, the company is expected to fully benefit.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's income from 2022 to 2024 will be 145.64 / 200.73x26.26 billion yuan. With reference to the comparable company valuation, the company will be valued at 10 times PS in 2023, corresponding to the company's fair value of 380.66 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Demand is not as expected; new product launch is not as expected; customer development is not as expected.