share_log

香山股份(002870)2022年业绩预告点评:业绩稳步提升 新能源产品、客户持续突破

Xiangshan Co., Ltd. (002870) 2022 performance forecast review: steady improvement in performance, new energy products, continuous customer breakthroughs

中信證券 ·  Jan 17, 2023 14:06  · Researches

The company announced on January 11, 2023 that 4Q22 is expected to deduct the non-return net profit of RMB 5,818-60.18 million, which is + 11.8% less than 15.7% last year and + 41.6% higher than the previous year. The steady improvement in the company's performance is mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company's new energy products and the continuous infiltration of superimposed cockpit components into independent brands and new car-building forces, resulting in improved revenue structure and profitability. The company is a leading supplier of automotive cockpit components in China, which has broken through the global new energy mainframe factory, NIO Inc., ideal and other new car-building forces; the company has made great efforts to develop new energy business, and has laid out intelligent charging piles, BDU, PDU, charging port high-voltage wire harness and other products. Considering the non-economic impact of the incidental performance compensation for the acquisition of Qunsheng Qunying, we think that it is more reasonable to deduct the non-return net profit valuation. According to the performance forecast, we raise the company's non-return net profit forecast for 2022 to 155 million yuan, maintain 2023 Universe 2024 deduction non-home net profit forecast 2.13 / 272 million yuan, give the company 2023 forecast deduction non-home net profit 23 times PE, corresponding to the target price 37 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.

4Q22 deducts non-homing net profit from the same month-on-month increase, business steadily upward. On January 11, 2023, the company issued an announcement that the net profit of deducting non-return in 2022 is expected to be 145 million yuan, which is + 1.0% and 2.3% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, the company expects 4Q22 to deduct the non-return net profit of 5818% to 60.8 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 11.8%, 15.7%, and 46.5%, respectively. The non-recurrent loss of the company's 4Q22 mainly comes from the accounting treatment brought about by the acquisition of Qunsheng Qunying, which is affected by non-operating factors, so deducting the non-return net profit can better reflect the management level of the company. The company's performance improved steadily, and the non-homing net profit increased by more than 80% in the second half of the year, mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company's new energy products and the continuous infiltration of superimposed cockpit components into independent brands and new car-building forces. bring about improvement in revenue structure and profitability.

Intelligent upgrade of cockpit components, continue to develop new energy customers. The company is the leading supplier of automobile cockpit parts in China, and its air conditioning outlet market occupies the first place in China and leads the world. The company has mastered special processes such as real wood PUR, real aluminum surface treatment and production, 3D blow molding, and is committed to integrating advanced electronic / motor actuators into interior components to improve its intelligent level. The value of a bicycle is expected to increase by more than 20%. The company continues to break through new energy customers while consolidating foreign luxury brand customers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi.

The company recently won the bid for the luxury accessories project of the global head new energy mainframe factory, which will supply high-end material products such as real wood, real aluminum and carbon fiber, with a total life cycle of more than 2 billion yuan. In addition, the company has broken through NIO Inc., ideal and other new forces supporting head car building, of which NIO Inc. has become the company's fifth largest customer in the first half of 2022, accounting for 1.49% of its revenue.

Open up new energy business and grow revenue at a high speed. The company focuses on new energy business, and its existing products include intelligent charging piles, BDU, PDU, charging port high voltage wire harness, etc., and has obtained a total of 37 patents in the field of new energy high voltage distribution unit modules and charging and distribution systems in the past three years. The company will complete the fixed growth in 2022 and plan to invest 860 million yuan in the research and development of new DC charging equipment, new generation AI intelligent AC charging equipment and charging operation platform. The company is the first domestic supplier of intelligent charging piles for Volkswagen MEB platform models, and has been designated by SAIC passenger cars, SAIC GM and other high-quality customers. In 2021, the total amount of new life cycle orders for the company's new energy business reached 1.9 billion yuan, with abundant orders on hand. In the first half of 2022, the company's new energy business achieved revenue of 202 million yuan, + 227% compared with the same period last year. With the mass production and delivery of follow-up projects, we expect the business to maintain rapid growth.

Risk factors: automotive industry sales decline risk; new energy vehicle penetration is lower than expected; company technology and product iteration risk; goodwill impairment risk; management and integration risk.

Investment suggestion: the company's car cockpit components continue to break through new energy customers, have broken through NIO Inc., ideal and other new forces supporting head car manufacturing, and won the bid for the luxury accessories project of the global head new energy mainframe factory. The company's new energy business revenue is growing rapidly, the product matrix is constantly rich, and the customers are of high quality. According to the performance forecast, we raise the company's return net profit forecast for 2022 to 85 million yuan, and maintain the 2023max 2024 deduction non-return net profit forecast of 113,272 million yuan. Taking into account the changes in the fair value of the financial assets caused by the company's performance commitments during the reporting period, resulting in non-recurrent losses, we believe that deducting non-return net profit can better reflect the profit level of the company. According to the performance forecast, we raise the company's non-return net profit forecast for 2022 to 155 million yuan, and maintain the 2023 prime 2024 deduction non-return net profit forecast of 213 million yuan. According to the Wind of Xin Rui, Inbor and Huguang, the average PE will be about 30 times in 2023.

Considering that the return net profit CAGR of Xin Rui Technology, Yingbo and Huguang shares in 2022-2024 is 200% / 129% respectively (based on the Wind consensus forecast), while the company's car intelligent cockpit components and weighing instrument business has formed a larger business scale, the deduction of non-home net profit CAGR in 2022-2024 is expected to be 32%, which is lower than the growth rate of the above-mentioned comparable companies. Therefore, we conservatively give the company's 2023 forecast deduction of 23 times the non-return net profit of PE, corresponding to the target price of 37 yuan, to maintain the "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment