Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022, with an estimated income of 725 million yuan to 745 million yuan in 22 years, a decrease of 8.45% to 5.93%, a net profit of 93 million yuan to 103 million yuan, a decrease of 31.11% to 23.70%, and a deduction of 92 million yuan to 100 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 0.54% and 9.28%. Among them, the estimated income of 22Q4 is 171 million yuan to 191 million yuan, down 21.02%, 11.08%, 26 million yuan to 36 million yuan, 11.82% to 21.96%, and 29 million yuan to 37 million yuan, up 3.60% to 32.37%.
Comments:
Epidemic disturbance-raw materials remain high, compressing the company's profit margins. In 2022, due to the spread of the epidemic in many places at home, high inflation overseas and other factors, the downstream demand of the company's products decreased, and the order volume decreased compared with the same period last year. Superimposed raw material prices remain high, resulting in upward production costs, compression of profit space, operating income, home net profit have declined compared with the same period last year. Due to the government subsidy received by the company in 2022, it is expected to contribute 6 million of the non-recurrent profit and loss, a decrease of about 37.4829 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
With a two-pronged approach of main business and new business, we can expect growth in the future. In terms of main business, the company is one of the largest reflective material leaders in China, with stable product quality and performance advantages, and can make a rapid response to customer needs. In addition, the company continues to achieve self-research and self-production of core raw materials through technological innovation, expand the field of reflective functional fabrics, and expand the market share of security and consumer reflective materials.
In 2022, the company set up new energy and pharmaceutical subsidiaries to create new business growth poles. In terms of new energy business, the chairman of the company has a professional background in electrochemistry of Xiamen University, which can provide the company with superior industrial resources and promote the development of new business. The company plans to cut into the field of new energy storage through users, and has now obtained the sales agent book of Zhejiang Energy Company. in the future, it is expected to extend the layout of the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, self-construction and self-investment, joint ventures and other ways to promote the steady development of new business.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we downgrade the company's 2022-2024 EPS forecast of 0.82 PE 1.29Unix 1.66 (the original value is 0.87 Universe 1.29Unix 1.66), and the current share price corresponds to 17.48 times of the 23-year stock price. In the short term, with the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policy and the gradual recovery of overseas demand, the expansion of the company's main customers is expected to gradually promote, leading to the resumption of orders for reflective materials; in the long run, the gradual landing of new energy business is expected to contribute to new performance increments and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: raw material price fluctuation risk, new business expansion is not as expected, exchange rate fluctuation risk and so on.