Event: the company issued a 2022 performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.8 billion to 6 billion yuan, yoy+36.58% to 41.29%, non-net profit of 6.04 billion to 6.24 billion yuan, and yoy+34.58% to 39.04%. The performance is in line with expectations. Among them, Q4 achieved a net profit of 8.9 to 1.09 billion yuan in a single quarter, and yoy-47.704% to-35.92 percent from 29.54 to-13.68 percent.
Conclusions and suggestions: in 2022, benefiting from the high prosperity of the phosphorus chemical industry chain, the company's performance increased compared with the same period last year.
As a leading domestic phosphorus chemical enterprise, with fine chemical industry as the core, the company continues to improve the self-sufficiency rate of energy and resources, and forms an integrated industrial pattern through the integrated development of phosphorus, silicon, sulfur and fluorine chemical industry. The company maintains rapid development in the field of fine chemicals, upgrading and extending the industrial chain, vigorously laying out in the field of wet electronic chemicals and new energy materials, rich projects under construction, sufficient growth motivation, and maintaining a "buy" rating.
The price of the main product rises, and the profit for the whole year increases compared with the same period last year: the overall prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is higher in 2022, and the price of the company's main product is higher than the same period last year. The average market price of glyphosate / yellow phosphorus / monoammonium phosphate / diammonium phosphate / phosphate rock / DMC in 2022 is 62309, 33106, 3479, 3728, 898, and 23742 yuan / ton, respectively, and the yoy is + 22%, 24%, 23%, 23%, 21, 100, 80, 25, respectively. On December 12, 2022, the company issued an announcement that the Houping Mine Project obtained a safety production license and entered the stage of formal production.
After the production capacity of 2 million tons of phosphate rock in Houping Mine is put into production, the company's phosphate mineral capacity will reach 5.85 million tons, which will further enhance the guarantee capacity of phosphate resources and thicken the profit margin of the company. The company actively grasps the market opportunity, organizes production and management scientifically, and gives full play to the advantages of "integration of mine, electricity and phosphorus" and "coordination of phosphorus and silicon salt" industry chain, and the profit of phosphorus chemical industry is expected to increase greatly.
Q4 demand decline, the main product prices fall: the company's Q4 performance declined month-on-month, mainly due to sluggish downstream demand, the price of most of the company's products fell. The average market price of Q4 glyphosate / yellow phosphorus / monoammonium phosphate / diammonium phosphate / phosphate rock / DMC is 51792, 3181, 3579, 10471, 17571 / ton, respectively, and the yoy is-35%, 18%, 0%, 6%, 68, 54, 54, respectively, Qoq is-15%, 10, 10, 11, 1, 12, respectively.
The rapid development of the new material plate opens the growth space: the company is based on the phosphorus chemical industry, continuous innovation and development, and vigorously develop the new material plate. Benefiting from the rapid development of food processing, carbon fiber, integrated circuits and other emerging industries, the company has a good market demand for food additives, special chemicals, wet electronic chemicals and other products, a steady increase in profitability and a significant increase in operating efficiency. the proportion of performance contribution has reached 30%. The new material section is expected to open a secondary growth curve for the company. At present, the company is rich in new materials projects, Xingyou Technology 100000 tons of iron phosphate, Yidu Xingfa 100000 tons of wet-process phosphoric acid refining technology upgrading project is expected to be put into production in mid-2023; Hubei Xingrui 50, 000 tons of photovoltaic glue and 30, 000 tons of liquid glue, Xingfu Electronics 30, 000 tons of electronic grade phosphoric acid technology transformation, 20, 000 tons of electronic grade hydrogen peroxide, 20, 000 tons of electronic grade etching liquid, 3000 tons of electronic grade cleaning agent and other projects are steadily moving forward The company also plans to build Xingfu Electronic Chemicals Zone in Shanghai, adding 30,000 tons / year electronic grade sulfuric acid, 10,000 tons / year electronic grade functional chemical equipment and supporting projects. Multi-base synchronous development can faster meet the needs of customers in different regions and reduce transportation costs. The company also plans to spin off its holding subsidiary Xingfu Electronics to Kechuang Board for listing. After the spin-off, Xingfu Electronics will become an independent listing platform for the company's electronic chemicals business, which will help to enhance the brand awareness and social influence of Xingfu Electronics. Strengthen Xingfu Electronics's competitive position and competitive advantage in the field of electronic chemicals.
Profit forecast: considering the decline in the price of glyphosate, we revise the profit forecast next. It is estimated that the company will achieve net profit of 59.296302pm in 2024, respectively. (the previous value is 60.06 EPS 6.375 billion), yoy+40%/+6%/+9%, equivalent to 5.330.67 EPS 6.17, the current A share price corresponding to PE is 6-5-5 times, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1, the price of the company's products is lower than expected; 2, the release of new capacity is not as expected