Profits grew steadily in 2022 and the performance was in line with expectations. The company issued a pre-increase announcement on its performance in 2022, which is expected to achieve a return net profit of 58.0-6 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 36.6%-41.3% over the same period last year, and is expected to deduct a non-return net profit of 60.4-6.24 billion yuan, an increase of 34.6%-39.0% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, the net profit is expected to be RMB 8.9-1.09 billion, a decrease of 37.7%, 49.1%, and 13.6%, 29.4%, respectively. In the fourth quarter, the net profit is expected to be RMB 10.4-1.24 billion, a decrease of 33.7%, 44.4%, and 4.0%, respectively. The performance is in line with expectations.
The phosphorus chemical industry and glyphosate boomed throughout the year, and the volume of growth products accelerated. (1) the price of glyphosate was high before and after low in 2022, with an annual average price of 62676 yuan / ton, an increase of 22.3% over the same period last year. The company's Inner Mongolia Xingfa 50000 tons / year glyphosate production capacity has been put into production at 22Q3, and the existing glyphosate production capacity is 230,000 tons / year. The company buys back Agricultural Bank of China and holds 23.13% minority shareholder stake in Taisheng Company, and Taisheng Company has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the company. (2) the price of phosphate rock remains high. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the whole year is 899 yuan / ton, an increase of 80.5% over the same period last year. The company's 2 million tons / year mining project of Houping Phosphate Mine has obtained a safety production license in December 2022. The company has an existing phosphate rock production capacity of 5.9 million tons per year. (3) the market demand of the company's partial growth products such as food additives, special chemicals and wet electronic chemicals is good, the revenue scale has increased steadily, the operating efficiency has increased significantly, and the contribution to performance has reached 30%.
The layout of organosilicon, phosphate mineral processing, electronic chemicals projects, the new project is expected to contribute to performance growth. The company invested 2.51 billion yuan to build 400,000 tons / year organosilicon new material project, of which the first phase is expected to be put into production in the third quarter of 2023; invested 890 million yuan to build the Houping 2 million ton / year phosphate rock mineral processing and pipeline transportation project, which is expected to be put into production in March 2024. Further increase the self-sufficient ratio of phosphate rock It is planned to invest 880 million yuan in the Shanghai Xingfu Electronic Chemicals Zone project, including 30,000 tons / year of electronic grade sulfuric acid, 10,000 tons / year of electronic and functional chemicals, and R & D center. In addition, the first phase of the company's 100,000 tons / year iron phosphate project, Inner Mongolia Xingfa 400,000 tons / year organosilicon monomer, 50,000 tons / year photovoltaic glue, 30,000 tons / year liquid glue and 20,000 tons / year electronic grade etching liquid projects are under construction and are expected to be put into production in 2023. The company relies on strong R & D capabilities and huge R & D investment, products include phosphorus-based, silicon-based, sulfur-based, new energy and other new materials, the company's DMSO, DMDS, phosphating agent, silicone oil, silicone rubber, silicone microcapsules and other new materials products are doing from 0 to 1, from 1 to N strategic layout, the next 1-2 years will become the company's new rapid profit growth point.
Risk hint: product prices fluctuate sharply, and the progress of new production capacity is not as expected.
Investment advice: downgrade earnings forecasts and maintain a "buy" rating.
By lowering the profit forecast, it is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.82x592xb (the original value is 61.0x61x723 million), a year-on-year growth rate of 3.70pm; diluted EPS is 5.20x5.29x5.48, and the current share price corresponds to PE 5.5x5.4x5.2x, maintaining the "buy" rating.