The company expects a 22-year net profit of 8.68-938 million yuan, an increase of 60-73%, and the performance is in line with market expectations. The company expects 22-year net profit to return to the mother of 8.68-938 million yuan, an increase of 60-73%, and non-net profit of 8.23-893 million yuan, an increase of 60-73%. Of which Q4 returned to the mother net profit of 2.75-345 million yuan, with an increase of 64-106%, with a ring increase of 10-38%; deducting non-net profit of 2.7-340 million yuan, an increase of 66-110%, and a ring increase of 14-45%, in line with market expectations.
Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 10% and is expected to maintain 50% + growth in 2023. On the revenue side, we estimate that the company's Q4 revenue is about 28-2.9 billion yuan, an increase of 10%, and the annual income is about 8.8 billion yuan, which is double that of the same period last year, which is in line with market expectations. 4680 orders and overseas factories will start in 2023, and the company's share in the Ningde era will maintain 40%. We expect revenue to maintain 50% + growth. On the profit side, the median net profit of 22Q4 is 310 million yuan, an increase of 24%, and the corresponding net interest rate is about 11%. The profit level is eye-catching, the net interest rate for the whole year is about 10%, and the competition pattern of structural components is stable in 2023. The company takes the lead in R & D capacity, production management, capacity layout and cost control. We expect prices to remain stable and net interest rates to remain at 10% in 2023.
Overseas markets began to increase, with 4680 volume supporting the company's increase in global market share. The company follows the forward-looking layout of production capacity of major global and domestic battery customers, and has the leading advantages in equipment, raw materials and yield. The existing three major bases in Europe have been put into production. We expect to contribute about 1 billion yuan in revenue in 2023. Customers such as Ningde Times, Samsung, Northvolt, France ACC and so on are gradually expanding. In addition, the company's 4680 cylindrical structures have been designated by major customers at home and abroad, and 2022Q4 has gradually begun to increase. We expect to contribute 5-1 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, supporting the company's further increase in global share.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of industry sales growth, we slightly revise the forecast for the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 (the original forecast is RMB 9.4 / 2.21 billion), with an increase of 71% / 63% / 46%. Corresponding to the PE of 34x/21x/14x, the company will be given a 2023 30xPE with a target price of 193.5 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: sales of electric vehicles are less than expected and competition in the industry intensifies.