Main points of investment:
When the prebaked anode is cut into the lithium negative electrode, the synergistic effect is obvious. 1) Petroleum coke: Suotong develops petroleum coke with an annual procurement capacity of 3 million tons, strong bargaining power, and the advantages of centralized procurement and global procurement. 2) the advantages of production experience transfer: the production processes of pre-baked anode and artificial graphite negative electrode are highly similar, and the experience and team accumulated in the manufacture of pre-baked anode can be applied to the manufacture of negative electrode materials. 3) electricity charge: the largest cost of graphitization of anode material is electricity, and the company has obtained the green photovoltaic power generation index of 770MW in Jiayuguan City, Gansu Province, which can provide power supply and support for graphite anode material project and reduce power consumption cost. 4) reduce the cost of consumables: the box plate and crucible waste produced by Xinyuan during graphitization can be used as fillers for anode production.
The gross profit per ton of pre-baked anode continues to increase. The price of the company's pre-baked anode products increased from 3049 yuan / ton in 2019 to 4011 yuan / ton in 2021. Due to the relatively small increase in cost, the gross profit per ton of the company's pre-baked anode increased from 408 yuan / ton in 2019 to 729 yuan / ton in 2021.
Rapid expansion of production capacity. The company has an existing production capacity of 2.52 million tons of pre-baked anodes, while Yunnan Aluminum Phase II 300000-ton project has been ignited for trial production, and we estimate that the production capacity of pre-baked anodes in 25 years will reach 5 million tons. Xinyuan in Inner Mongolia has an integrated production capacity of 15000 tons, and we estimate that the integrated negative electrode production capacity will reach 315000 tons in 25 years, and the graphitization self-supply rate will reach 100%.
Investment strategy and rating. Without considering the fixed increase, we estimate that the EPS of the company in 22-24 years is 2.71,4.02,5.54 yuan respectively. According to the valuation of the comparable company, we give the company 10-12 times PE in 23 years, with a reasonable value range of 40.20-48.24 yuan, with a rating of "better than the market".
Risk hint. (1) the fluctuation of the price of raw materials affects the gross profit margin. (2) the downstream demand is lower than expected.
(3) the construction and release of production capacity is not as expected.