Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022, with a net profit of 78 million yuan to 94 million yuan in 2022, a year-on-year deduction of 154 million yuan to 156 million yuan in non-net profit in 2022, and 2.34% in 2022. The performance exceeded expectations.
Comments:
22H1 was affected by the epidemic and its performance was under pressure, and the performance recovered faster in the second half of the year when unfavorable factors were alleviated. The company's 22H2 deducted 100 million yuan from the non-net profit center, an increase of more than 80% month-on-month. The main reason is that the company's performance is under pressure due to the impact of the international macro situation and epidemic situation in the first half of 2022, and the business recovery is accelerated after the adverse factors are alleviated. From a quarterly point of view, the 22Q4 deduction of non-profit center is 59 million yuan, and the company began to deduct non-profit from 22Q2 showing a month-on-month increase. The month-on-month growth rates of non-net profits of 22Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 were-53.8%, + 29.2%, + 32.3% and + 43.9%, respectively.
The company has won a new energy vehicle decoration project, which is expected to contribute to the increment in the future. The company released the important news in December 2022 and won the ultra-luxury accessories project of the global head new energy automobile company. the total life cycle order is more than 2 billion yuan, depending on the positioning and configuration of the model. Junsheng Qunying will provide high-end material products such as real wood, real aluminum and carbon fiber to meet its functional and personalized needs. As one of the most senior intelligent cockpit manufacturers in the auto parts industry, Junsheng Qunying continues to lead the industry in the field of air management system segmentation, and its market share has reached the first in China and the leading in the world.
Intelligent cockpit + new energy charging and distribution business two-wheel drive, helping the rapid growth of performance. 1) New energy charging and distribution business: the company's new energy charging and distribution products have been put into the market in the past 22 years, and the order continues to release, with a large increase. The independent brand "JOYCHARGE" of charging operation has been launched to the market in an all-round way, expanding overseas optical storage market at the same time, and creating a new energy charging and distribution industry chain. The product matrix of new energy charging and distribution has been continuously enriched, and new orders remain strong. 2) cockpit business: with the transformation of independent brands and new forces to the high-end market, and the upgrading of car interiors to smart luxury, the penetration of the company's luxury smart accessories among the above customers continues to increase, bringing new growth momentum to the company. The company continues to deepen the customer base and product matrix, bringing a strong driving force for the company's rapid growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's 22-year performance exceeded expectations, we are optimistic that the company's future order release will bring performance growth, based on the above considerations, raise the company's profit forecast. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 80 million yuan, 141 million yuan and 200 million yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.61,1.07,1.51 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 46.6,26.5 and 18.7 times respectively.
Risk factors: the risk of rising prices of raw materials; the risk of recurrent epidemic situation; the risk that the expansion of new products is not as expected.