低估值、高股息率 构筑安全边际。
北京银行目前估值水平纵向来看是历史最低位,横向来看居上市银行相对较低水平,而其股息率居7%以上的较高水平,低估值、高股息率带来的确定性收益为北京银行构筑了扎实的安全边际。
区位优势下基本面改善的必然性。
北京市拥有旺盛的融资需求和优异的资产质量,社融增长和不良贷款比率均在全国排名十分靠前,为北京银行提供了优异的外部环境。随着自身存量问题的解决和零售转型的推进,其资产质量和盈利能力将向北京市的自然情况回归,确定性较强。
新任董事长带来新契机。
2022 年4 月8 日,北京银行新任董事长霍学文先生任职资格获批。作为新任董事长,霍学文先生非常熟悉经济金融工作,具有丰富的管理经验和深厚的学术造诣,且持续关注数字经济、互联网金融领域,有利于北京银行稳定经营和数字化转型。而且,霍学文先生曾有北京当地监管机构的从业经历,有利于北京银行更加充分地理解和满足监管要求,实现业务灵活性与监管要求之间更好的平衡。
投资建议:北京银行低估值、高股息率的特点为其构筑了坚实的安全边际,而从中长期来看,随着存量不良的出清、零售转型的推进以及新董事长的上任,结合北京市旺盛的信贷需求和优质的资产质量,北京银行获得资产质量优化和盈利能力改善的确定性较强,看好其估值修复机会。当前股价对应2022/2023/2024 年PB 估值分别为0.39/0.36/0.34,维持“买入”评级。
风险提示:资产质量受经济超预期下滑影响,信用风险集中暴露
Low valuation and high dividend yield build the margin of safety.
The current valuation level of Bank of Beijing is the lowest in history vertically, relatively low horizontally in listed banks, and its dividend yield is at a higher level of more than 7%. Undervalued and high dividend yield bring deterministic returns for the Bank of Beijing to build a solid margin of safety.
The inevitability of improving the fundamentals under the location advantage.
Beijing has a strong financing demand and excellent asset quality, social financial growth and non-performing loan ratio are very high in the country, providing an excellent external environment for the Bank of Beijing. With the solution of its own stock problem and the promotion of retail transformation, its asset quality and profitability will return to the natural situation of Beijing, with strong certainty.
The new chairman brings new opportunities.
On April 8, 2022, the qualification of Mr. Huo Xuewen, the new chairman of the Bank of Beijing, was approved. As the new chairman, Mr. Huo Xuewen is very familiar with economic and financial work, has rich management experience and profound academic attainments, and continues to pay attention to the field of digital economy and Internet finance, which is conducive to the stable operation and digital transformation of the Bank of Beijing. Moreover, Mr. Huo Xuewen has experience with local regulators in Beijing, which helps the Bank of Beijing to understand and meet regulatory requirements more fully and achieve a better balance between business flexibility and regulatory requirements.
Investment advice: the characteristics of low valuation and high dividend yield of the Bank of Beijing have built a solid margin of safety for it. In the medium to long term, with the poor clearing of stocks, the promotion of retail transformation and the appointment of the new chairman, combined with Beijing's strong credit demand and high-quality asset quality, the Bank of Beijing has a strong certainty of asset quality optimization and profitability improvement, and is optimistic about its valuation and repair opportunities. The current share price corresponds to a 2022 / 2023 PB valuation of 0.39 / 0.36 / 0.34 in 2024, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: asset quality is affected by a higher-than-expected economic decline, and credit risk is concentrated exposed.