Summary of the report:
Domestic silicon powder industry leader, in-depth layout of powder materials to strengthen the leading position. The company's main business includes crystallization, melting, spherical silicon powder as the representative of silicon powder, as well as spherical alumina and other powder materials. Relying on the leading spheroidizing technology, the company distributes silicon-aluminum powder materials, stores other new categories in the future, establishes the leading position of domestic ball powder subdivision, and gradually shows strong competitiveness in the international market. At present, the company's spherical silicon products have passed the verification of downstream head customers such as Samsung, Sumitomo and KCC, and have entered the stage of rapid volume release, which will bring about the improvement of the overall product structure and profitability of the company.
Break the monopoly of overseas high-end silicon powder and be a domestic pioneer with excellent technology and scale. High-end silicon powder has long been in the hands of Japanese companies, accounting for 70% of the global market. The company's strong technical strength, independent research and development of spheroidizing process, and according to customer demand to launch Low α, LowDf ball silicon and other high-end products, break the monopoly to conquer the high-end market. The company seizes the opportunity of product demand upgrading and expands its production capacity. The rapid release of silicon powder has become a domestic leader, and it is a pioneer in the localization of silicon powder with leading technology and scale.
Benefit from downstream CCL, EMC application demand upgrading, ball silicon ushered in a good opportunity for development. With the development of new generation information technology such as 5G high-frequency and high-speed communication and semiconductor advanced packaging, the performance and power consumption of printed circuit boards and semiconductors are required to be improved. Spherical silicon has good properties of dielectric loss, dielectric constant, linear expansion coefficient and filling rate, which meets the requirements of downstream products for low radioactivity, low transmission loss, low transmission delay and high heat resistance. rapidly expand the market application in the upgrading of downstream products.
Extend the powder industry chain to develop nodular aluminum and create a new growth pole of performance. Spheroidal aluminum is mainly used in thermal interface materials. With the high power of consumer electronics and communication equipment, the demand for thermal management of vehicle batteries increases, and thermal interface materials are used more and more widely. Spherical aluminum and spherical silicon are both spherical powders with common production technology. The company uses its own strong powder preparation technology to produce nodular aluminum, and its sales are increasing year by year, creating the second growth curve. Ball aluminum is expected to become a new growth pole of the company's performance.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. We estimate that the operating income of the company in 2022-24 is 8180.924 million yuan, respectively, and the net profit of homing in 2022-24 is estimated to be 1.69max 2.36 / 296 million yuan, corresponding to PE 38X/27X/21X. Based on the import substitution of the company's products and the upgrading of domestic applications, since IPO, the expansion path is clear and the growth is outstanding. It is suggested that a reasonable PE of 35X next year, corresponding to a six-month target market value of 8.3 billion yuan, to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: customer expansion is not as expected, and project construction progress is not as expected.