投资要点
事件：1）公司拟以3.83 亿元收购董事长等关联方所持东莞腾威85%的股权（交易前邬全生持股55%，徐金富持股30%，交易完成后公司持股85%，邬全生持股15%），布局锂电胶粘剂业务；2）拟发行GDR 在瑞士证券交易所上市，本次发行GDR 所代表的新增基础证券A 股股票不超过2.89 亿股；3）公司拟在新加坡投资设立全资子公司，注册资本为100 万新加坡元，有利于完善公司全球化战略平台。
4.5 亿对价收购东莞腾威，拓展胶粘剂业务，贡献新增长点。公司此前发布Pack 端的发泡弹性体、低密度弹性体、高导热凝胶和高导热灌封胶，腾威主营业务为动力电池用胶黏剂，与公司有机硅产品具有协同作用。腾威22 年H1 营收0.87 亿元，净利润0.25 亿元，22 年1-10 月预计营收1.68 亿元，净利润0.4 亿元，转让人承诺腾威23/24/25 年扣非归母净利润不低于0.49/0.55/0.62 亿元，3 年累计净利润不低于1.66 亿元，若未达到将给予现金补偿，若超额实现将对经营团队进行额外现金奖励（超额的30%）。腾威估值为4.5 亿元，对应定价85%股权为3.825 亿元，按明年承诺业绩计算，则对应明年估值9x，交易价格合理，有助于补充及丰富公司产品线并发挥行业协同效应。
公司电解液成本优势突出，23 年目标翻倍增长，市占率预计进一步提升。公司全年预计出货33 万吨，同增130%+，23 年公司目标出货60 万吨，接近翻倍增长，同时公司拟发行GDR，成立新加坡子公司，海外产能布局加速，我们预计公司23 年全球市占率将进一步提升。盈利方面，我们预计Q3 单吨盈利1.2-1.3 万元/吨左右，领先行业竞争对手，Q4 预计仍可维持1.1 万元/吨+，公司液体六氟优势明显，我们预计六氟成本较竞争对手低3 万元/吨+，享受超额利润，叠加23 年LIFSI 放量，23年单吨盈利我们预计可维持1 万元左右。
盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到行业竞争加剧，我们下调公司2022-2024年归母净利预期至58.81/64.98/87.44 亿元（原预期60.46/75.84/99.00 亿元），同比+166%/10%/35%，对应PE 为15x/14x/10x，给予23 年20 倍PE，对应目标价67.4 元，“买入”评级。
风险提示：电动车销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧。
Main points of investment
Event: 1) the company plans to spend 383 million yuan to acquire 85% of Dongguan Tengwei held by the chairman of the board of directors and other related parties (55% by Wu Quansheng before the transaction, 30% by Xu Jinfu, 85% by Wu Quansheng after the transaction, and 15% by Wu Quansheng), laying out the lithium adhesive business; 2) the proposed GDR will be listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange, and the new A shares represented by the GDR will not exceed 289 million shares. 3) the company plans to invest and set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore with a registered capital of S $1 million, which will help to improve the company's globalization strategy platform.
450 million consideration to acquire Dongguan Tengwei to expand adhesive business and contribute new growth points. The company has previously released foamed elastomers, low-density elastomers, high thermal conductivity gels and high thermal conductivity potting adhesives at the Pack end. Tengwei's main business is adhesive for power batteries, which has a synergistic effect with the company's silicone products. Tengwei's revenue of H1 in 22 years is 87 million yuan, net profit is 25 million yuan, expected revenue from January to October in 22 years is 168 million yuan, net profit is 40 million yuan. The assignor undertakes that the annual net profit deducted by Tengwei on 23-24-25 will not be less than 0.49 hundred million yuan, and the cumulative net profit in three years will be no less than 166 million yuan. If it is not reached, it will give cash compensation. If the excess is realized, the management team will be given an additional cash reward (30% of the excess). Tengwei has a valuation of 450 million yuan, corresponding to a price of 85% equity of 382.5 million yuan. Calculated according to the promised performance next year, it will correspond to a valuation of 9x next year. The transaction price is reasonable, which will help to supplement and enrich the company's product line and exert industry synergy.
The company's electrolyte cost advantage is outstanding, the 23-year target doubles the growth, and the market share is expected to further increase. The company expects to ship 330000 tons for the whole year, with an increase of 130%. In 23 years, the company aims to ship 600000 tons, nearly doubling the growth. At the same time, the company plans to issue GDR, set up a Singapore subsidiary, and accelerate the layout of overseas production capacity. We expect the company's global market share to further increase in 23 years. In terms of profit, we expect Q3 to make a profit of about 12,000-13,000 yuan per ton, leading industry competitors, Q4 is expected to maintain 11,000 yuan / ton +, the company's liquid hexafluorine advantage is obvious, we expect hexafluorine cost to be 30,000 yuan / ton + lower than competitors, enjoy excess profits, superimposed 23 years of LIFSI volume, 23 years profit per ton we expect to maintain about 10,000 yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the intensified competition in the industry, we downgrade the company's 2022-2024 return net profit forecast to RMB 58.81 million (originally expected to be RMB 60.46), with a "Buy" rating of + 166%, 10%, 35%, and 20 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to 15x/14x/10x and target price of 67.4 yuan.
Risk hint: electric vehicle sales fall short of expectations, and competition in the industry intensifies.
