This report is read as follows:
Affected by the epidemic, the company's domestic business was affected in the short term, but the company's overall revenue performance improved quarter by quarter, overseas business grew well, and Micro LED and VR business had great growth potential.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. We maintain the company's forecast of EPS of 0.3,0.42,0.5 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024. With reference to the valuation of the industry, we give the company a target of 25 times PE in 2022 and lower the target price to 7.50 (- 1.50) yuan.
Domestic business was affected by the epidemic, overseas business performed well, and overall income improved quarter by quarter. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 5.773 billion yuan,-1.05% year-on-year, and net profit of 432 million yuan,-17.07%, compared with the same period last year. The company's performance was basically in line with expectations and declined compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, it was affected by the decline in travel business, which achieved revenue of 570 million yuan (- 46.61%) in the first three quarters; on the other hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the company intelligently showed that the delivery of orders for domestic direct selling business was delayed and the expansion of distribution business was affected. in the first three quarters, the company's domestic intelligent display realized revenue of 2.35 billion yuan,-7.35% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the rate of expenses for the four items in the first three quarters of the company was 21.05%, an increase in 1.49pp over the same period last year, which was also a factor affecting the decline in net profit.
Overseas smart display business still maintains a good trend, with revenue of 1.87 billion yuan in the first three quarters, + 42.04% year-on-year; at the same time, Q3's total revenue in a single quarter is 2.23 billion yuan, month-on-month + 5.82%, and the overall performance of the revenue side shows a trend of improvement quarter by quarter.
Orders improve, VR and Micro LED may be a new driving force for growth. In terms of orders, the company Q3 intelligently showed that the newly signed orders increased by 23% month on quarter, which was significantly better than the growth rate of Q2 compared with 8%. Among them, the domestic intelligence showed that the order Q3 increased by 30% in the single quarter, which also showed a trend of improvement. in addition, the company's Micro LED layout is leading, and the order for the black diamond series launched in September has reached 40 million yuan. At the same time, NP's VR products achieved revenue of 270 million yuan in the first three quarters, + 23.2% year-on-year, with stable growth, and with the development of the domestic market, there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.
Catalyst: the demand for high-definition display screen is fast.
Risk hint: affected by the epidemic, the company's capacity construction is not up to expectations.