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蔚来汽车(9866.HK):亏损扩大但毛利率环比稳定 明年产品周期强劲

NIO Auto (9866.HK): Losses expand but gross margin is stable month-on-month, next year's product cycle is strong

招商證券(香港) ·  Nov 16, 2022 00:00  · Researches

The adjusted net loss in the third quarter was 3.5 billion yuan, expanding month-on-month, and the gross profit margin was 13.3% month-on-month.

Five new models will be launched in the first half of 2023, with full coverage of the NT2.0 platform, promoting a stronger product cycle

The current valuation of the company is 1.4x 2023E Pabot S

The loss in the third quarter widened, and the expense side was a drag on the performance.

The net loss in the third quarter was 4.1 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), with a year-on-year / month-on-month ratio of + 44.9% and 50.9%. After excluding the impact of share payments and preferred shares, the adjusted net loss was from 58.3% to 3.5 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Revenue 13 billion yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month + 32.6% Universe 26.3%; delivery of 32000 new cars, year-on-year / month-on-month + 29.3% Universe 26.1%. Due to the increase in personnel costs and network expansion, sales / administrative and general expenses in the third quarter increased by 48.6% compared with the same period last year, which was higher than the income growth rate, dragging down the performance, and the expense rate was 20.9%. The R & D expenditure in the third quarter was 2.9 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 800 million yuan compared with the previous quarter, and the expense rate was 22.6%, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.8ppt, reflecting increased investment in new brands and strategic new businesses such as batteries and chips.

Gross profit margin is lower than the same period last year but stable month-on-month.

1) Gross profit margin: 13.3% in the third quarter, year-on-year / month-7ppt/+0.3ppt, of which car sales gross margin 16.4%, year-on-year / month-1.7ppt/-0.3ppt. The reasons for the decline in gross profit margin year-on-year are: a) lower sales of new energy credits; b) higher battery costs; and c) lower gross profit margins due to the expansion of investment in energy and services networks. 2) Bicycle profit: the bicycle income in the third quarter was 378000 yuan,-1.1% compared with the previous quarter; the gross profit of the bicycle was 62000 yuan, compared with-2.8%; the net loss of the bicycle was 131000 yuan, an increase of 19.6%. 3) Cash reserves: by the end of the third quarter, the cash reserves totaled 51.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 billion yuan compared with the previous quarter.

Key business guidelines are relatively optimistic

1) delivery volume: 43000-48000 vehicles were delivered in the fourth quarter, corresponding to 125000-130000 vehicles delivered for the whole year; 10, 000 vehicles were delivered in October, implying that 16000-19000 vehicles were delivered every month from November to December; 2) R & D investment: quarterly R & D investment maintained 3 billion yuan; 3) profitability: gross profit margin in the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable compared with the third quarter, and core business break even in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Next year, the product matrix will be iterated to strengthen the product cycle.

1) iteration of product matrix: five new models are planned to be launched in the first half of 2023, including ES8/ES6/EC6 's modified model based on NT2.0 platform, and 2 new models; with ET7/ES7/ET5 superimposed on the existing NT2.0 platform, a total of 8 models cover various market segments in the range of 30-500000 yuan, promoting a comprehensive breakthrough in sales. 2) capacity expansion: ET5, which was affected by the epidemic and spare parts in October, has resumed production and is expected to exceed 20,000 vehicles in December; the total single-shift production capacity of the two plants will reach 300000 vehicles in 2023, effectively ensuring the delivery target. 3) Network expansion: as of the end of September, there were 399 service and delivery centers between NIO House and NIO Space,280 worldwide.

Valuation of companies and industries

According to consensus expectations in the Bloomberg market, the current valuation of the company is equivalent to 1.4x 2023E Pmax S, while the average valuation of new power in overseas markets is 1.4x 2023E Pmax S.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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