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中联重科(000157)2022年三季报点评:短期业绩承压 新兴板块和海外战略助力经营改善

Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157) 2022 Third Quarter Report Review: Short-term Performance Pressures Emerging Sectors and Overseas Strategies to Help Improve Operations

東方財富證券 ·  Nov 15, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Q3 revenue pressure, construction machinery industry may meet marginal improvement. The company's revenue in the first three quarters was 30.649 billion yuan,-43.69% of the same period last year. The net profit of return to the mother is 2.169 billion yuan,-62.29% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of non-return to the mother is 1.563 billion yuan, which is-70.51% compared with the same period last year. Q3 achieved revenue of 9.349 billion yuan in a single quarter,-21.94% year-on-year and-17.17% month-on-month, narrowing the decline from the previous quarter. According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 2022H1 is affected by the downward construction of infrastructure construction, and the demand for construction machinery such as excavators is under short-term pressure. After entering Q3, it ushered in a marginal improvement, selling all kinds of excavators in October + 8.1% compared with the same period last year. The excavator index shows that the average monthly operating rate of Q3 construction machinery is 64.76%, which is higher than 53.98% of the average monthly operating rate of Q1. Sales of the company's core products, cranes and concrete machines, are expected to grow as infrastructure construction starts to pick up.

Gross profit margin remains stable, steel prices fall is expected to repair profits. Q3 single-quarter gross margin 21.41%, year-on-year / month-on-0.64pct/-0.00pct, remained stable. 2022H1 steel prices as a whole show a "rising and falling" trend, with the decline in raw material prices, the company's gross profit margin is expected to be further repaired. Q3 single-quarter net interest rate of 4.89%, year-on-year / month-on-2.58pct/-2.40pct, continued to decline. From the expense point of view, Q3 single-quarter expense rate is 15.66%, year-on-year / month-on-month ratio is 2.29pct, including sales, management, finance, R & D expense rate + 1.95pct/+0.95pct/-1.06pct/-1.67pct.

Emerging sector businesses and international strategies help smooth cyclical fluctuations. The company makes great efforts to develop potential business, including excavation machinery, aerial work machinery, agricultural machinery and so on. 2022H1 domestic sales rose to fifth in the industry, and in June, sales climbed to third in the industry. High-altitude machinery is the most complete model of high-altitude equipment manufacturers in China, 2022H1's domestic market share has increased to the first in the industry, overseas sales accelerate the global layout, the products have covered 71 countries and regions. Agricultural machinery wheat machine, dryer, rotary tiller, seedling throwing machine domestic market share to maintain the forefront of the industry. 2022H1 earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, other machinery and products accounted for 30.7% of revenue, an increase over the same period last year, with export revenue + 40.45% year-on-year. The localization development strategies of key countries such as Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam have achieved remarkable results, with year-on-year sales performance of + 100%. In the future, emerging sectors and export earnings are expected to continue to expand, smoothing the negative impact of the real estate cycle.

The buyback shares are used for employee shareholding, demonstrating the company's confidence in development. On July 20, 2022, the company adopted the "Plan for the repurchase of A shares of the Company", which is used to implement the employee stock ownership plan. As of September 30, 2022, the company has accumulated 237903087 shares of A shares in the company through a special securities account for share repurchase, accounting for 2.74% of the company's total share capital. This share buyback demonstrates the company's confidence in the stock price, and will mobilize the enthusiasm of all staff to work together to help the company's business develop better.

[investment advice]

We believe that the impact of the recession in the downstream real estate industry on the construction machinery industry has been fully reflected, with the gradual landing of the real estate rescue policy, the demand boom is expected to bottom out.

Short-term: with the acceleration of the country's steady growth investment projects, the company's construction machinery business is expected to rise steadily.

Medium-and long-term: at the product level, the company is expected to make more breakthroughs in agricultural machinery, aerial work machinery, new construction materials and other fields, helping the company to become a platform engineering equipment company. At the market level, the company actively develops overseas markets and is expected to become a global company.

We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 446.4 / 491.1 / 57.45 billion yuan respectively, the net profit from the return to the mother will be 33.2 Sterling 52.3 yuan, and the EPS will be 0.38 Sterling 0.47 Sterling 0.60 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 15-12-9, which will be covered for the first time and given the "overweight" rating.

[risk Tip]

Investment in infrastructure fell short of expectations

Risk of rising prices of raw materials

Emerging businesses and overseas market expansion are not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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