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联瑞新材(688300):球铝净利有望进一步释放 空间可期

Lianrui New Materials (688300): The net profit of spherical aluminum is expected to further free up space

國金證券 ·  Nov 10, 2022 08:51  · Researches

A brief comment on the event

November 9, the company announced that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Lianrui New Materials (Lianyungang) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Lianyungang Lianrui") passed the recognition of high-tech enterprises. Lianyungang Lianrui has been recognized for the first time through the identification of high-tech enterprises.

Business analysis

The subsidiary mainly sells high-end ball aluminum, and high-tech certification helps to release profits. Lianyungang Lianrui, a wholly owned subsidiary, is the main production body specially set up by the company for spherical alumina and liquid slurry products. according to the company announcement, the unit price of spherical alumina in 2021 is 22883 yuan / ton, the gross profit margin is 53%, and the added value of liquid slurry is higher. Compared with the company's main products, angular silicon powder (2021 unit price 3409 yuan / ton, gross profit 41%) and spherical silicon micro powder (2021 unit price 13568 yuan / ton, gross profit 41%) are higher-end and more profitable products, compared with the company's current main products (2021 unit price 3409 yuan / ton, gross profit 41%). This makes the subsidiary company is expected to become an elastic source of profits in the future. For the first time, the subsidiary has been recognized by a high-tech enterprise, which will help to release the company's profit flexibility and lay an uncertain foundation for future growth.

There is still room for domestic substitution of spherical silicon, and nodular aluminum opens the second growth curve. We are optimistic about the growth of the company's high-end products for a long time. At present, the company's high-end products are mainly concentrated in the spherical powder category, which accounts for 58% of the revenue, of which: 1) spherical silicon is mainly used in semiconductor EMC, which is still monopolized by Japanese manufacturers. Under the general trend of domestic substitution, the company still has two times the market share. 2) Ball aluminum is mainly used for heat conduction and heat dissipation of new energy vehicles, the unit price is 60% "70% higher than ball silicon, and the gross profit margin is higher than ball silicon 10pct. The industry space will be at least 2 times larger under the trend of heat dissipation of new energy vehicles. As a new and aggressive manufacturer, the company has achieved batch supply among well-known customers at home and abroad, and has the strength to become the main player in the market. We are optimistic that the company will grow in high-quality customers in the future.

Profit forecast

We estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 is estimated to be 1.7312.36 yuan (321 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.39) 1.8912.57 yuan (the company's equity distribution is carried out on November 9, and the capital reserve increases by 38688030 shares, resulting in a decrease in the company's EPS), corresponding to the PE valuation of 35x) 26x) 19x, continue to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hint

Demand is lower than expected: natural gas prices rise; capacity utilization is lower than expected; resolution of restricted stocks

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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