Company announcement: in the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue, return to its mother and deducted non-net profit of 16.428 billion yuan, 4.36 billion yuan and 4.254 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 148%, 180% and 181% respectively over the same period last year. Among them, Q3 revenue, return to the mother, and deducted non-net profit were 6.065 billion yuan, 1.454 billion yuan and 1.368 billion yuan respectively, up 107%, 88.61% and 83.8% respectively over the same period last year.
Q3 performance exceeded expectations. The company's Q3 performance is at the median of the forecast, with a 3.3% month-on-month increase in net profit. Since Q3, the price of hexafluorine has stabilized and rebounded, and the market price of electrolyte has gradually stabilized. The price of various types of electrolyte Q3 has generally decreased by 20,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan per ton, while the company still maintains strong profitability and its performance is slightly higher than expected.
Q3 non-recurrent profit and loss of about 86 million yuan is relatively large, mainly due to the previous provision of Jiangxi cloud lithium business in Q3.
Electrolyte business analysis. The company's Q3 electrolyte shipments are expected to exceed 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of nearly 50%. It is estimated that the average tax price of the company's Q2 electrolyte dropped to 60-65000 yuan / ton, which was lower than the price of the main raw materials in the same period, mainly due to the large customers of the company's electrolyte last year, and the price increase was also lower than that of the main raw materials. It is estimated that the profit per ton of Q3 is about 13000, a month-on-month decline of about 4000 yuan / ton. The profit per ton is significantly lower than the price drop, and it is still at a high level in the industry. The main reason is: the company's new hexafluorine production capacity is gradually full, and the self-financing ratio continues to be close to 95%. At the same time, LiFSI shipments are expected to be 2000 tons, an increase of 66% month-on-month, a substantial increase, and obvious integration advantages.
The performance of the plate is significantly differentiated, and the advantage of corporate integration appears. The performance of hexafluorine plate is significantly divided, it is estimated that the profit per ton of some manufacturers Q3 dropped sharply compared with the previous month, and the profit per ton of second-tier hexafluorine manufacturers dropped to 1-15000 yuan, corresponding to the profit per ton of electrolyte about 1000-2000 yuan / ton. Considering the rise in the price of raw materials and the climbing cost of new hexafluorine production capacity in some industries is significantly higher than that of the head enterprises, and the price of Q4 lithium carbonate continues to rise, it is expected that the price of hexafluorine will hit bottom in stages. From the perspective of long-term profitability, assuming that the second line and below hexafluorine manufacturers are in the break-even line in extreme cases, the company can still maintain a high level of profitability.
Daily chemical and big positive pole and other business analysis. Q3 daily chemical business remains stable, Carbomer + traditional daily chemical business is expected to contribute nearly 50 million yuan in net profit. In the large positive business, it is expected that iron phosphate shipments of about 0.8-9000 tons, iron lithium shipments have also increased, taking into account the decline in product prices is expected to make a total profit of about 50 million yuan.
Investment suggestion: the company's electrolyte business has a significant competitive advantage, and the field of iron phosphate is opening up new growth points. at the same time, lithium materials such as new binders are gradually hatched through the solid foundation of daily chemical business, which is gradually evolving into a platform material company. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating, and it is estimated that the net profit of 2022 and 2023 will be adjusted to the target price of 53-58 yuan.
Risk hint: the policy of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; prices may fall as a result of increased competition.