公司公告： 2022 年前三季度公司实现营收、归母、扣非净利润分别164.28 亿元、43.6 亿元、42.54 亿元，分别同比增长148%、180%、181%。其中Q3 营收、归母、扣非净利润分别60.65 亿元、14.54 亿元、13.68 亿元，分别同比增长107%、88.61%、83.8%。
Q3 业绩超预期。公司Q3 业绩位于预告中值，归母净利润环比增长3.3%，Q3以来六氟价格开始企稳回升，电解液市场价格也逐步稳定，各品类电解液Q3 价格环比降幅普遍在2-3 万元/吨，而公司仍保持较强的盈利能力，业绩略超预期。
Q3 非经常损益约8600 万元数额较大，主要系此前计提的江西云锂业务在Q3 冲回。
电解液业务分析。预计公司Q3 电解液出货超9 万吨，环比增长接近50%。估算公司Q2 电解液含税均价环比下滑至6-6.5 万元/吨，环比下滑幅度低于同期主要原材料价格，主要系去年公司电解液让利大客户，涨价幅度也低于主要原料价格涨幅。估算Q3 单吨利润约1.3 万，环比下滑约4000 元/吨，单吨利润降幅显著低于价格降幅，仍处于行业较高水平，主要系：公司新六氟产能逐步打满，自供比例继续维持接近95%，同时预计LiFSI 出货2000 吨，环比增长66%，大幅增长，一体化优势明显。
板块业绩显著分化，公司一体化优势显现。六氟板块业绩显著分化，估算部分厂商Q3 单吨盈利环比大幅下滑，二线六氟厂商单吨盈利降至1-1.5 万元，对应到电解液环节的单吨盈利约1000-2000 元/吨。考虑到原材料价格的上涨以及部分行业新的六氟产能爬产成本要明显高于头部企业，且Q4 碳酸锂价格继续上涨，预计六氟价格阶段性见底。而从长期盈利能力角度出发，假设极端情况下2 线及以下六氟厂商处于盈亏平衡线时，公司仍能保持较高盈利水平。
日化及大正极等业务分析。Q3 日化业务保持平稳，卡波姆+传统日化业务预计贡献净利润近0.5 亿元。大正极业务中，预计磷酸铁出货约0.8-0.9 万吨，铁锂出货也有所增长，考虑到产品价格下滑预计合计盈利约0.5 亿元。
投资建议：公司电解液业务竞争优势显著，磷酸铁领域正在开辟新的增长点，同时通过日化业务的扎实基础逐步孵化出新型粘结剂等锂电材料，正在逐步向平台型材料公司演变。维持“强烈推荐”评级，预计2022、2023 年归母净利润60、71 亿元，调整至53-58 元目标价。
风险提示：新能源汽车政策低于预期；竞争加剧可能导致的价格下降。
Company announcement: in the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue, return to its mother and deducted non-net profit of 16.428 billion yuan, 4.36 billion yuan and 4.254 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 148%, 180% and 181% respectively over the same period last year. Among them, Q3 revenue, return to the mother, and deducted non-net profit were 6.065 billion yuan, 1.454 billion yuan and 1.368 billion yuan respectively, up 107%, 88.61% and 83.8% respectively over the same period last year.
Q3 performance exceeded expectations. The company's Q3 performance is at the median of the forecast, with a 3.3% month-on-month increase in net profit. Since Q3, the price of hexafluorine has stabilized and rebounded, and the market price of electrolyte has gradually stabilized. The price of various types of electrolyte Q3 has generally decreased by 20,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan per ton, while the company still maintains strong profitability and its performance is slightly higher than expected.
Q3 non-recurrent profit and loss of about 86 million yuan is relatively large, mainly due to the previous provision of Jiangxi cloud lithium business in Q3.
Electrolyte business analysis. The company's Q3 electrolyte shipments are expected to exceed 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of nearly 50%. It is estimated that the average tax price of the company's Q2 electrolyte dropped to 60-65000 yuan / ton, which was lower than the price of the main raw materials in the same period, mainly due to the large customers of the company's electrolyte last year, and the price increase was also lower than that of the main raw materials. It is estimated that the profit per ton of Q3 is about 13000, a month-on-month decline of about 4000 yuan / ton. The profit per ton is significantly lower than the price drop, and it is still at a high level in the industry. The main reason is: the company's new hexafluorine production capacity is gradually full, and the self-financing ratio continues to be close to 95%. At the same time, LiFSI shipments are expected to be 2000 tons, an increase of 66% month-on-month, a substantial increase, and obvious integration advantages.
The performance of the plate is significantly differentiated, and the advantage of corporate integration appears. The performance of hexafluorine plate is significantly divided, it is estimated that the profit per ton of some manufacturers Q3 dropped sharply compared with the previous month, and the profit per ton of second-tier hexafluorine manufacturers dropped to 1-15000 yuan, corresponding to the profit per ton of electrolyte about 1000-2000 yuan / ton. Considering the rise in the price of raw materials and the climbing cost of new hexafluorine production capacity in some industries is significantly higher than that of the head enterprises, and the price of Q4 lithium carbonate continues to rise, it is expected that the price of hexafluorine will hit bottom in stages. From the perspective of long-term profitability, assuming that the second line and below hexafluorine manufacturers are in the break-even line in extreme cases, the company can still maintain a high level of profitability.
Daily chemical and big positive pole and other business analysis. Q3 daily chemical business remains stable, Carbomer + traditional daily chemical business is expected to contribute nearly 50 million yuan in net profit. In the large positive business, it is expected that iron phosphate shipments of about 0.8-9000 tons, iron lithium shipments have also increased, taking into account the decline in product prices is expected to make a total profit of about 50 million yuan.
Investment suggestion: the company's electrolyte business has a significant competitive advantage, and the field of iron phosphate is opening up new growth points. at the same time, lithium materials such as new binders are gradually hatched through the solid foundation of daily chemical business, which is gradually evolving into a platform material company. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating, and it is estimated that the net profit of 2022 and 2023 will be adjusted to the target price of 53-58 yuan.
Risk hint: the policy of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; prices may fall as a result of increased competition.
