The company's performance is in the median forecast: from January to September 2022, the company achieved revenue of 16.429 billion yuan, year-on-year + 148.06%, return to the mother net profit of 4.36 billion yuan, year-on-year + 180.65%. Among them, 2022Q3 achieved revenue of 6.065 billion yuan, year-on-year + 107.64%, month-on-month + 16.32%, return to the mother net profit of 1.454 billion yuan, year-on-year + 88.59%, month-on-month + 3.27%. Gross sales margin 36.17%, year-on-year-7.30pct, month-on-month-5.89 pct, net sales margin 24.37%, year-on-year-3.88 pct, month-on-month-3.39 pct.
Electrolyte shipments increased month-on-month, while net profit per ton decreased: in terms of electrolyte, the company's Q3 shipment was about 90,000 tons, a month-on-month ratio of about + 38%, and a pre-tax price of about 54,000 yuan per ton, a month-on-month ratio of-29%. The net profit per ton is about 13,000 yuan / ton, about-27% compared with the previous month. The decrease in net profit per ton is mainly due to the decrease in the price of Q3 electrolyte compared with the previous month, while the price of lithium carbonate at the cost end has increased. Electrolyte shipments for the whole year are expected to reach 330000 tons, + 129% year-on-year. In terms of profitability, with the subsequent increase in the proportion of LiFSI and additives, the cost is expected to further decline, and the competitiveness of the company is expected to be strengthened.
The cathode material business is expected to release volume quickly: in terms of iron phosphate, the company's Q3 shipment is about 10,000 tons, and the additional production capacity of 100,000 tons / year of the first phase of the 300000 ton Zhijiang iron phosphate project in Yichang, Hubei Province, has been put into production in mid-October, and the annual shipment is expected to reach 50,000 tons. Shipments are expected to reach 260000 tons in 2023, achieving rapid release. The company produces sulfuric acid, a by-product of liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate, which can be used to prepare ferrous sulfate, the precursor of ferrous phosphate, and the recycling of sulfuric acid is expected to further reduce the cost.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading enterprise of electrolyte, electrolyte, additives and other raw materials integrated layout construction cost advantage, cathode material business rapid volume, is expected to create a new growth point. We expect the company's 2022-2024 net profit to be 57.20,71.57 and 8.653 billion yuan, which is + 159.0%, 25.1% and 20.9% compared with the same period last year. The current stock price is 12 times PE in 2023, maintaining the "buy-B" rating.
Risk tips: a sharp drop in product prices, production and sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected, capacity release is not as expected, other emergencies and other risks.