Event
According to the company's three-quarter report for 2022, the company achieved operating income of 30.649 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 43.69% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 2.169 billion yuan, down 62.29% from the same period last year.
Of this total, Q3 achieved an operating income of 9.349 billion yuan in a single quarter, down 21.94 percent from the same period last year, and its net profit was 453 million yuan, down 49.72 percent from the same period last year.
Brief comment
Q3 performance decline narrowed, profitability is expected to repair
2022Q3's revenue and net profit are-21.94% and-42.77% respectively compared with the same period last year, while 2022Q2's revenue and net profit are-51.76% and-65.36% respectively compared with the same period last year, which is significantly narrowed from the previous year, mainly due to: (1) the steady growth policy led to the pick-up of infrastructure investment and the improvement of Q3 start-up; (2) the company actively laid out overseas, and overseas market revenue maintained growth. (3) the company actively promotes business and production cost reduction. In terms of profitability, the gross and net interest rates of 2022Q3 are 21.41% and 4.89% respectively,-0.01pct and-2.40pct respectively, and-0.64pct and-2.58pct respectively compared with the same period last year. Profitability is under pressure, mainly because the decline in raw material prices caused by inventory has not been fully realized, and the decline in income scale has led to an increase in expense rates.
Looking to the future, with the marginal improvement of the domestic market, the company continues to make efforts in overseas markets, and the decline in raw material prices is gradually reflected, and the company's profitability is expected to be repaired gradually in the future.
New products, new markets and new plates are promoted simultaneously.
In terms of new products, the company's excavator revenue declined slightly in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, far outperforming the industry; the performance of high-tech products is more eye-catching, and revenue in the first three quarters is expected to exceed that of last year.
In terms of new markets, the company actively distributes overseas markets, and its overseas revenue increases quarter by quarter, steadily improving. From a sub-market point of view, markets such as the Middle East, India and America have more than doubled; in terms of sub-products, the three leading products of construction, construction and concrete have grown steadily, while earthwork and high-speed machines have grown at a high speed. In the future, the company's overseas revenue is expected to enter a period of accelerated growth.
New plate, the company firmly diversified layout, "construction machinery + agricultural machinery + new materials" three plates go hand in hand, is expected to achieve cross-cycle growth.
Investment suggestion
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit will be 27.56,33.76 and 4.322 billion yuan respectively, which is-56.05%, + 22.49% and + 28.04% respectively compared with the same period last year, corresponding to PE 16.85x, 13.75x and 10.74x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.