投资摘要:
深耕一体化 领跑电解液赛道
地位:全球电解液龙头企业,形成了 LiPF6、LiFSI、溶剂、添加剂、电解液等产业链一体化布局。
产能:2021 年电解液出货量为14.4 万吨,占国内电解液出货量的28.8%。
客户:与宁德时代、LG、Tesla 等厂商深度合作。
锂电行业发展强劲 电解液需求高增。新能源汽车高景气度拉动电解液需求,预计2021-2024 年全球电解液需求由118 万吨增至410 万吨,CAGR 约为52%。
领先优势显著 龙头地位稳固
天赐材料凭借领先的电解液核心原材料LiPF6 生产技术,并且自给率高,所以成本优势明显。在LiPF6 供应较紧俏的时期,毛利率高于其他电解液公司。
2022Q1~3 毛利率达40.5%,净利率达27.1%。
纵向一体化布局,强化成本优势。公司积极布局了碳酸锂、氟化锂、硫酸、氢氟酸、五氟化磷、氯磺酸、双氟磺酰亚胺等,基本覆盖锂盐原材料,且各环节副产品如硫酸可循环使用,降低终端电解液产品成本,提高毛利率。
不断扩展全球优质客户,龙头地位稳固。公司于 2021 年开始陆续与宁德时代、LG 等客户签订长期供货协议。此外,公司与 Tesla 签署了战略合作协议,进一步扩展了国外优质汽车客户资源。
构建了全国性及重点国际区域战略供应系统,能够实现在国内100km 供应半径内、国外500km 供应半径内对绝大多数客户实现精准覆盖。
发布三款重磅锂电材料新品,即非氟类锂电池粘结剂、NMP 替换溶剂TinciE100 以及动力电池模组封装胶,打造新的增长极。
扩产迅速 业绩增量可期。2021 年公司电解液出货量14.4 万吨,未来公司将有多个规划项目逐步落地,预计公司2022 年电解液出货量约为33 万吨,2024 年为102 万吨, 2021-2024 电解液出货量CAGR 约为92%。
投资建议:预计2022-2024 年公司归母净利润为60/81/118 亿元,对应PE 为13.5/10 /6.8 倍,首次覆盖给予公司“买入”评级。
风险提示:新能源车产销量不及预期、电解液价格大幅下降、产能建设不及预期、固态电池取得突破性进展。
Investment Summary:
The integration of deep ploughing leads the electrolyte track
Status: the leading enterprise of electrolyte in the world, which has formed the integrated layout of LiPF6, LiFSI, solvent, additive, electrolyte and other industry chain.
Production capacity: electrolyte shipments in 2021 were 144000 tons, accounting for 28.8% of domestic electrolyte shipments.
Customers: in-depth cooperation with Ningde Times, LG, Tesla and other manufacturers.
The lithium industry is developing strongly and the demand for electrolytes is high. The demand for electrolyte is driven by the high scene of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that the global demand for electrolyte will increase from 1.18 million tons to 4.1 million tons in 2021-2024, and the CAGR will be about 52%.
The leading edge is significant and the leading position is solid.
Divine material relies on the leading electrolyte core raw material LiPF6 production technology, and the self-sufficiency rate is high, so the cost advantage is obvious. In the period of tight supply of LiPF6, the gross profit margin was higher than that of other electrolyte companies.
The gross profit margin of 2022Q1~3 is 40.5% and the net profit rate is 27.1%.
Vertical integration layout, strengthen the cost advantage. The company actively distributes lithium carbonate, lithium fluoride, sulfuric acid, hydrofluoric acid, phosphorus pentafluoride, chlorosulfonic acid, difluorosulfonimide, etc., basically covering lithium salt raw materials, and various by-products such as sulfuric acid can be recycled to reduce the cost of terminal electrolyte products and increase gross profit margin.
Continue to expand the global quality customers, the leading position is stable. The company began to sign long-term supply agreements with customers such as Ningde Times and LG in 2021. In addition, the company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tesla, which further expands the resources of foreign high-quality automobile customers.
Build a national and key international regional strategic supply system, which can achieve accurate coverage for the vast majority of customers within the domestic 100km supply radius and foreign 500km supply radius.
Launch three new products of blockbuster lithium materials, namely, non-fluorine lithium battery binder, NMP replacement solvent TinciE100 and power battery module packaging adhesive, to create a new growth pole.
Rapid expansion of production performance increment can be expected. The company's electrolyte shipment is 144000 tons in 2021, and a number of planning projects will be gradually launched in the future. it is estimated that the company's electrolyte shipments will be about 330000 tons in 2022, 1.02 million tons in 2024, and about 92% of electrolyte shipments in 2021-2024.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 118,000,000, corresponding to PE 13.5 / 6.8X, giving the company a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hints: production and sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected, electrolyte prices have fallen sharply, capacity construction is not as expected, and solid-state batteries have made breakthroughs.