事件：事件： 公司近日发布2022年三季度报，Q3实现营收60.65亿元，同比+107.42%，环比+16.32%；实现净利润14.54 亿元，同比+88.61%，环比+3.27%；实现扣非归母净利润13.68 亿元，同比+83.80%，环比-1.72%。前三季度共计营收164.28 亿元，同比+148.06%，实现净利43.60 亿，同比+180.65%。
电解液价格回调压力下，盈利能力保持强劲。随着行业产能的逐步释放，Q3 电解液价格环比-25%左右，而六氟磷酸锂、溶剂价格分别环比-20%、+10%左右。行业电解液价格回调速度快于原材料的情况下，公司Q3 净利润环比持平，主要原因在于：1）盈利方面，公司成本控制能力强，电解液单吨净利保持在较高水平。三季度公司六氟磷酸锂自供率达到95%左右，LiFSI 自供率达到70%以上，核心原材料自产抵御材料价格波动风险，我们估算公司三季度电解液单吨净利在1.3 万元每吨左右。2）出货量方面，公司出货量增速高于行业增速，市占率进一步提升。我们估计公司Q3 电解液出货量为9 万吨左右，环比约+50%，高于行业整体增速（48%左右）。
电解液步入供需格局松动阶段，公司有望凭借成本优势进一步扩大市占率。我们预计三季度以后，随着各家产能的逐步释放，电解液和六氟磷酸锂供需格局将逐渐松动，行业将迎来一轮出清。公司成本控制能力强（六氟磷酸锂及LiFSI 产能持续释放）、与大客户深度绑定（宁德占比50%左右、4680 电池电解液公司是主供），有望在低谷期进一步提升市占率，我们预计公司2023 年市占率将提升至40%以上。
多业务逐步起量，新业务及新技术打开长期发展空间。1）电池回收业务方面，公司已与多家电池持有方展开合作，12 月份有望投产，补充锂资源供应；2）正极业务方面，磷酸铁2022/2023 年出货量有望达到5/26 万吨。按照2.4 万/吨的价格、4000 元的单吨净利计算，2022/2023 年有望贡献营收12/62 亿元，净利润2/10 亿元。磷酸铁锂预计2022/2023 年出货量将达到0.5/1.5 万吨，2024 年有望大规模上量；3）六氟磷酸钠方面，公司目前已有 1000 吨六氟磷酸钠装置，并规划新建产能1 万吨，预计2024 年1 季度投产；4）粘结剂方面，公司日化产线可柔性切换至粘结剂产线，部分产品已具备量产和交付能力，预计2023 年将具备5 万吨产能，目标销售额为 4-5 亿元。新技术+新业务有望为公司带来长期增长动力，打开远期发展空间，持续推荐。
投资建议：公司一体化降本进度超预期，我们上调盈利预测，预计2022-2024 年公司营业收入分别为254.36/339.95/434.11 亿元,同比增长129.34%/33.65%/27.70%；归母净利润分别为56.94 亿元、67.39亿元、81.89 亿元，同比增长157.83%/18.35%/21.53%。对应EPS 分别为2.96/3.50/4.26 元。当前股价对应PE 为14.98/12.63/10.40。首次评级，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业竞争加剧、下游需求不及预期
Event: the company recently released the third quarter report of 2022, Q3 realized revenue of 6.065 billion yuan, year-on-year + 107.42%, month-on-month + 16.32%; realized net profit of 1.454 billion yuan, + 88.61%, month-on-month + 3.27%; realized non-return net profit of 1.368 billion yuan, + 83.80%, month-on-month-1.72%. The total revenue in the first three quarters was 16.428 billion yuan, + 148.06% compared with the same period last year, with a net profit of 4.36 billion, + 180.65% compared with the same period last year.
Under the pressure of electrolyte price correction, profitability remains strong. With the gradual release of industry production capacity, the price of Q3 electrolyte is about-25%, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and solvent are about-20% and + 10%, respectively. Under the condition that the price of electrolyte in the industry is adjusted faster than that of raw materials, the company's Q3 net profit is flat, mainly due to: 1) in terms of profit, the company has strong cost control ability and the net profit per ton of electrolyte is maintained at a high level. In the third quarter, the company's self-supply rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached about 95%, the self-supply rate of LiFSI reached more than 70%, and the core raw materials were produced to resist the risk of material price fluctuations. We estimate that the company's net profit per ton of electrolyte in the third quarter is about 13000 yuan per ton. 2) in terms of shipments, the growth rate of the company's shipments is higher than that of the industry, and the market share has further increased. We estimate that the company's Q3 electrolyte shipment is about 90,000 tons, about + 50% month-on-month, which is higher than the overall growth rate of the industry (about 48%).
The electrolyte has entered the loosening stage of supply and demand, and the company is expected to further expand its market share by virtue of its cost advantage. We expect that after the third quarter, with the gradual release of production capacity, the supply and demand pattern of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate will be gradually loosened, and the industry will usher in a round of clearance. The company has strong cost control ability (lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI capacity continues to be released) and is deeply bound with major customers (Ningde accounts for about 50%, and 4680 battery electrolyte company is the main supplier). It is expected to further increase the market share in the trough period, and we expect the company's market share to increase to more than 40% in 2023.
The volume of multi-business is gradually increasing, and new business and new technologies open up room for long-term development. 1) in the battery recycling business, the company has partnered with a number of battery holders and is expected to start production in December to supplement the supply of lithium resources; 2) in the positive business, the shipment of iron phosphate 2022 amp is expected to reach 526,000 tons in 2023. Based on the price of 24000 / ton and the net profit of 4000 yuan per ton, 2022max is expected to contribute 126.2 billion yuan in revenue and 21.0 billion yuan in net profit in 2023. Lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 0.515 million tons in 2023, and is expected to increase on a large scale in 2024. 3) in terms of sodium hexafluorophosphate, the company already has 1000 tons of sodium hexafluorophosphate plant, and plans to build a new production capacity of 10,000 tons, which is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2024. 4) in terms of binder, the daily chemical production line of the company can be flexibly switched to the binder production line, and some products already have the capacity of mass production and delivery. It is estimated that it will have a production capacity of 50,000 tons in 2023, with a target sales of 400 million to 500 million yuan. New technology plus new business is expected to bring long-term growth momentum for the company, open up long-term development space, and continue to recommend.
Investment suggestion: the progress of capital reduction in the integration of the company is higher than expected, and we raise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 254.36, 339.95, and 43.411 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 129.34%, 33.65% and 27.70% over the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother is 5.694 billion yuan, 6.739 billion yuan and 8.189 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 157.83% 18.35% and 21.53% over the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is 2.96, 3.50 and 4.26 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to a PE of 14.98, 12.63, 10.40. First rating, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: increased competition in the industry and lower-than-expected downstream demand
