Incident: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2022, achieving revenue of 5.838 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022 (+27.0%, year-on-year growth rate in parentheses, same below); net profit of 795 million yuan (+34.8%); net profit of 838 million yuan (+298%) after deducting non-return mother's net profit; operating cash flow of 599 million yuan (-12.0%); performance was in line with expectations.
Q3 maintained a high growth rate, and profitability remained stable: Looking at a single quarter, the company's Q3 revenue and net profit returned to the mother were 2,014 million and 227 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.9% and 206% respectively. Because of the low performance base for 2021/Q3, it is apparent that profit growth is faster. In terms of profitability, the company's Q3 gross margin fell 1.3 pct to 60.2% year on year, and net interest rate increased 6.6 pct to 11.3% year on year.
Sartan affects profits in the short term and is expected to recover in 2022. In 2021, the company's performance was greatly affected in the short term due to a decline in sales of sartan API/formulations and an increase in the price of starting materials for sartan.
In 2022, as upstream price increases were effectively transmitted downstream and the ban on the company's southern Sichuan plant was lifted, the company's performance is expected to maintain a rapid recovery trend in 2022.
Overseas countries have export advantages, and domestic production is expected to continue to be released: Huahai Pharmaceutical's main formulations include valsartan tablets, losartan potassium tablets, paroxetine hydrochloride tablets, etc.; in terms of APIs, the company is the world's main supplier of pulyl and sartan APIs. In terms of overseas markets, by the end of June 2022, the company independently owned 87 US ANDA numbers, many of which had the highest market share in the US market. However, in the domestic market, the company's formulations are collected to accelerate the release of products in the domestic market. With the normalization of subsequent national collection, the company is expected to continue to increase the penetration rate of pharmaceutical products.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit to the parent for 2022-2024 to be 10.31/13.07/1,622 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE valuation in 2022-2024 is 29/23/19 times respectively; the company's various business pipelines are growing at a high growth rate. We are optimistic about the company's growth space. We are optimistic about the company's growth space. For the first time, we have given it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: API prices fluctuate; subsequent collection and release falls short of expectations; ANDA approval falls short of expectations, etc.