Event description
According to the company's three-quarter report, 2022Q1-3 achieved an operating income of 30.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.69% over the same period last year, a net profit of 2.169 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.29%, and a deduction of 1.563 billion yuan for non-net profit, a decrease of 70.51% over the same period last year.
According to this calculation, 2022Q3 achieved an operating income of 9.349 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.94% over the same period last year, a net profit of 453 million yuan, a decrease of 49.72% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 360 million yuan for non-net profit, a decrease of 52.60% over the same period last year.
Event comment
Performance is under short-term pressure, stable growth policy efforts superimposed low base performance growth is expected to be gradually repaired. Construction machinery has entered a downward trend after five years of high prosperity. At the same time, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has been lower than expected, coupled with the disturbance of the epidemic, the overall industry demand is relatively low. From January to September, sales in the excavator / truck crane / crawler crane industry fell 28% compared with the same period last year. 52%, 28%, and concrete machinery, tower cranes and other equipment more related to the real estate chain also declined. In the single quarter of Q3, due to a low base, strong overseas exports and new businesses such as high-speed machines, the decline in revenue in the single quarter of Q3 has narrowed, and the growth rate is expected to be further repaired against the background of a low base and a pick-up in industry demand.
Gross profit margin is stable as a whole, and the fall in bulk prices is expected to boost profitability repair. 2022Q1-3 achieved a gross sales margin of 20.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39pct, and a net sales margin of 7.23%, a decrease of 3.45pct over the same period last year. 2022Q3 achieved a gross sales margin of 21.41%, a slight drop in 0.64pct compared with the same period last year, which was basically the same as the previous month; and the net sales profit rate was 4.89%, which declined from the same period last month, or mainly due to the decline in government subsidies. Commodity prices are expected to fall, and the company's overseas and emerging sectors will make efforts. At the same time, considering that the fourth national standard will be implemented at the end of the year, the industry may increase the sales of existing country 3 inventory equipment, and the gross profit margin is expected to rise steadily under multiple factors. Profitability is expected to be gradually repaired.
The strategy of electrification, internationalization and diversification continues to advance, helping to smooth the cycle. The main growth points of the company's resistance to cyclical fluctuations are emerging businesses and rapid progress in overseas exports. In terms of new business, the performance of the company's high-plane sector has grown rapidly, the domestic market share of the company's aerial work platform has increased to the first place in the industry in the first half of the year, and overseas markets have cooperated with large renters and end customers in various regions of the world. with the commissioning of the intelligent industrial park, it is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, digging machines, dry-mixed mortars and agricultural machinery are also progressing smoothly. In terms of internationalization, the construction of localization business and operation systems in 17 key countries has been completed, and overseas revenue has achieved rapid growth, thus enhancing the company's ability to resist cyclical fluctuations.
Investment suggestion: under the background of stable growth policy superimposed with low base, the industry ushered in the interval of phased demand repair. At the same time, the company's leading product position is stable, emerging business sectors and overseas markets continue to expand, optimistic about the company's long-term comprehensive competitiveness and sustainable development. It is estimated that the company will achieve a net profit of 30.27 yuan and 5.314 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to 16 or 9 times of PE, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. The intensity of steady growth is lower than expected, and the growth rate of investment in infrastructure and real estate is lower than expected. 2. Overseas market expansion is not as good as expected.