公司发布2022 年三季报，前三季度盈利43.60 亿元，同比增长180.65%；公司锂电池材料出货量快速增长，全年业绩有望高增，维持增持评级。
2022 年前三季度盈利同比增长180.65%，符合预期：公司发布2022 年三季报，前三季度实现盈利43.60 亿元，同比增长180.65%；实现扣非盈利42.55 亿元，同比增长181.68%。其中2022 年第三季度实现盈利14.54 亿元，同/环比分别增长88.61%/3.25%；实现扣非盈利13.68 亿元，同比增长83.80%，环比下降1.71%。公司此前发布业绩预告，预计前三季度实现盈利42.60-44.60 亿元，同比增长174.19-187.06%，公司业绩符合预期。
锂电池材料出货量大幅增长，整体毛利率承压：公司受益于新能源汽车行业快速发展，电解液出货量显著增长，我们预计公司前三季度电解液出货量约18 万吨，其中三季度出货量约9 万吨，环比大幅增长50%。公司坚持一体化布局，电解液关键原材料六氟磷酸锂、LiFSI 的自供比例逐步提升至90%、70%，有利于公司保持成本优势。此外，公司前三季度整体毛利率为40.50%，其中第三季度毛利率为36.17%，环比降低5.89 个百分点。后续随着公司关键原材料自供比例进一步提升，毛利率有望回归正常水平。
磷酸铁业务快速发展，经营净现金流增长明显：公司磷酸铁业务实现快速发展，前三季度出货量约2 万吨，随着宜昌产能投放，全年出货量有望达到5 万吨，同增约100%。公司经营净现金流提升明显，前三季度经营净现金流净额为23.43 亿元，同比大幅提升136.86%。
在当前股本下，结合公司2022 年三季报与行业变化，我们将公司2022-2024 年的预测每股盈利调整至3.01/3.56/4.26 元（原预测摊薄每股收益为3.11/3.56/4.26 元），对应市盈率14.1/11.9/10.0 倍；维持增持评级。
The company released the three-quarter report of 2022, with a profit of 4.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 180.65% over the same period last year. The company's lithium battery material shipments are growing rapidly, and the full-year performance is expected to increase high, maintaining the overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
Profits in the first three quarters of 2022 increased by 180.65% over the same period last year, in line with expectations: the company released its third quarterly report in 2022, making a profit of 4.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 180.65% over the same period last year, and deducting 4.255 billion yuan in non-profit, an increase of 181.68% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit in the third quarter of 2022 was 1.454 billion yuan, up 88.61% and 3.25% respectively compared with the same period last year; the non-profit was deducted from 1.368 billion yuan, an increase of 83.80% over the same period last year and a decrease of 1.71% from the previous month. The company previously issued a performance notice, expected to achieve a profit of 42.60-4.46 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 174.19-187.06% over the same period last year. The company's performance is in line with expectations.
Lithium battery material shipments have increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin is under pressure: the company has benefited from the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, and electrolyte shipments have increased significantly. We expect electrolyte shipments of about 180000 tons in the first three quarters. Among them, shipments in the third quarter were about 90,000 tons, a sharp increase of 50% compared with the previous quarter. The company adheres to the integrated layout, and the self-supply proportion of lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI, the key raw materials of the electrolyte, is gradually increased to 90% and 70%, which is beneficial for the company to maintain its cost advantage. In addition, the company's overall gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 40.50%, of which the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 36.17%, down 5.89 percentage points from the previous quarter. With the further increase in the proportion of self-supply of key raw materials, gross profit margin is expected to return to the normal level.
With the rapid development of iron phosphate business, the operating net cash flow has increased significantly: the company's iron phosphate business has achieved rapid development, with shipments of about 20,000 tons in the first three quarters. With the launch of capacity in Yichang, shipments for the whole year are expected to reach 50,000 tons, an increase of about 100%. The company's net operating cash flow increased significantly, with a net operating cash flow of 2.343 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a substantial increase of 136.86% over the same period last year.
Under the current equity, combined with the company's quarterly report for 2022-2024 and industry changes, we adjust the company's earnings per share forecast for the period from 2022 to 2024 to 3.01 earnings per share (the original forecast diluted earnings per share is 3.11 pounds 3.56 pounds 4.26 yuan), corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1, 11.9 pounds, 10.0 times; maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
Price competition exceeded expectations; the demand for new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; the release of new production capacity fell short of expectations; new product research and development fell short of expectations; the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic exceeded expectations.