The decline in Q3 performance narrowed. 22Q3 achieved revenue of 9.349 billion yuan, year-on-year-21.94%, month-on-month-17.17%; net profit of 493 million yuan,-49.72%, month-on-month-44.06%. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue of 30.649 billion yuan,-43.69% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 2.169 billion yuan,-62.29% of the same period last year.
Profitability is under pressure. 22Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 21.41%, year-on-year-0.64pct, basically flat; net profit rate 4.89%, year-on-year-2.58pct, month-on-month-2.40pct. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's overall gross profit margin was 20.97%, year-on-year-3.38pct; overall net profit margin was 7.23%, year-on-year-3.45pct. We believe that the company's gross profit margin is under short-term pressure, on the one hand, Q3 is still slightly affected by the price of raw materials; on the other hand, with the arrival of country 3, country 4, country 3 inventory may have price reduction pressure. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's expense rate was 13.82%, year-on-year + 1.08pct, in which the sales / management / finance / R & D expense rate was 6.15%, 3.62%, 1.79%, 5.84%, respectively, and the year-on-year change + 0.98/+1.35/-1.70/+0.44pct. The increase in expense rate was mainly affected by the decline in income, and the financial income was mainly affected by exchange gains.
Steady growth is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, and the margin is expected to continue to improve. As the government relaxes restrictions on real estate, we expect the real estate industry to improve. Infrastructure investment in the first three quarters of the year increased by 11.2% year-on-year in September, a new high for the year, which will also support the demand for construction machinery. In September, excavator sales rose 5.5% from a year earlier, and the growth rate continued to pick up.
With the marginal improvement of the industry, the company's profit is expected to be repaired: we believe that under the influence of the epidemic, raw material price shock, GB switching and other factors, the company's revenue and profit fell sharply in the first three quarters of this year. According to industry association statistics, the third quarter excavator sales growth from negative to positive, with the decline in raw material prices reflected in the report side, GB switching pain relief, we believe that 22Q4 to 23H1 revenue and profitability are expected to stabilize and repair. Taking into account the drag on Q3 revenue, we downgrade the company's 22-year income and gross profit margin forecast, and taking into account the short-term increase in Q1-3 expense rate, we slightly increase the 22-year expense rate assumption, lower the investment income assumption, and increase the exchange earnings. The estimated 2022-2024 net profit is 324x3x50.4 billion (the original forecast is 3.899.757.2 billion yuan). Comparable to the company's 22-year average valuation of 14.18xPE, we maintain a 20% premium to the company, corresponding to 22-year PE17 times, the target price of 6.30 yuan, maintain the buy rating.
Risk hint
Investment in infrastructure real estate has declined, raw material prices have risen, industry competition has intensified, and the market for new products has changed.