Event: on October 27, 2022, the company released its third quarterly report for 2022. In the first three quarters of 2022, the operating income reached 3.817 billion yuan, an increase of 32.43 percent over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 604 million yuan, up 8.29 percent over the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was 566 million yuan, an increase of 10.92 percent over the same period last year.
Q3 revenue improved month-on-month, and the pace of order delivery improved. From a quarterly point of view, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 1.39 billion yuan, an increase of 29.60% over the same period last year, an increase of 16.85% over the same period last year, a decrease of 7.38% over the same period last year, an increase of 5.56% over the same period last year, and a non-return net profit of 195 million yuan, a decrease of 4.59% over the same period last year and a month-on-month increase of 12.44%. Q2 is disturbed by COVID-19 's epidemic situation, and the extension of order delivery and confirmation cycle leads to short-term performance pressure. with the marginal improvement of Q3 epidemic situation, the company actively increases order delivery efforts to achieve month-on-month improvement.
The fluctuation of raw material price and the change of revenue structure lead to the decrease of gross profit margin and the stability of expense rate. The gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 2022 is 40.57% (- 4.99pp). The fluctuation of gross profit margin is mainly caused by the fluctuation of raw material prices, the increase in the proportion of purification projects with low gross margin, and the decline in the proportion of overseas business with high gross margin. It is expected that the increase in the share of overseas business is expected to drive up gross profit margin as the overseas supply chain resumes. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's sales expenses were 172 million yuan (+ 33.57%), and the sales rate was 4.51% (+ 0.04pp). The company strengthened product promotion and increased sales personnel; the management expenses were 359 million yuan (+ 25.91%) and the management rate was 9.41% (- 0.49pp). The R & D cost is 232 million yuan (+ 39.77%), the R & D rate is 6.09% (+ 0.32pp), the company increases R & D investment, increases R & D personnel and R & D projects; the financial cost is-2.26 million yuan (+ 15.91%), and the financial rate is-0.06% (+ 0.03pp).
Contract liabilities continue to soar and capacity expansion is under way. As of 2022Q3's contract debt of 4.252 billion yuan (+ 28.36%), maintaining a high growth trend; fixed assets of 694 million yuan (+ 113.17%), the company's Dongtai base under construction part of the consolidation, the purchase of new industrial plant; net cash flow of operating activities of 104 million yuan (- 89.24%), due to increased purchase of raw materials and expansion of personnel scale. In October, the company was approved to actively expand the production capacity of back-end superior equipment such as freeze-dryers, while cutting into new businesses such as CGT and consumables to further lay the foundation for industrialization.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company's 2022-24 income to be 5.562 billion yuan, 6.936 billion yuan and 8.634 billion yuan, an increase of 32.68%, 24.70% and 24.47% over the same period last year; and the net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.312 billion yuan and 1.648 billion yuan, up 25.69%, 26.07% and 25.65% over the same period last year. Considering that the company is a rare leader in the integration of equipment and consumables, there is a wide space for domestic alternatives, and the superimposed overseas business will further open up the market space and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of lower-than-expected integration, the risk of price fluctuations in blood products, and the risk of a decline in gross profit margin in the blood products business.