Main points of investment
The demand for semiconductor expansion promotes the take-off of the special gas industry, and the tide of domestic substitution is surging. The main results are as follows: 1) the upsurge of semiconductor production expansion superimposed the domestic trend to promote the high growth of special gas. China is a global wafer expansion center. Chinese mainland semiconductor sales increased by 17% from January to May 2022, and strong downstream demand contributed to the take-off of the special gas industry. China's special / electronic special gas market is expected to reach 143.6 billion yuan in 2030. 2) the price of rare gas intensified by geographical conflict skyrocketed. On June 1, 2022, the prices of neon, krypton and xenon increased by 953%, 122% and 97% respectively compared with the beginning of the year.
The demand for carbon dioxide is growing steadily, and the market size is expected to reach 15 billion yuan in 2030. The main results are as follows: 1) the price of carbon dioxide is significantly different, which is mainly affected by the factors of use, region and season, and the price of carbon dioxide increases significantly in food grade, southern region and summer. 2) the demand for carbon dioxide in China is increasing steadily, and food-grade carbon dioxide is driven by the upsurge of carbonated drinks. The demand for carbon dioxide in China will reach 7.9 million tons in 2020, and the market scale of carbon dioxide in 2030 is expected to reach 15 billion yuan, with broad market prospects. The rising popularity of carbonated drinks has led to a steady increase in the demand for food-grade carbon dioxide. The market size of food-grade carbon dioxide is expected to reach 5.7 billion yuan in 2030.
The company is a leading enterprise of liquid carbon dioxide in China, with multiple advantages of channel passenger production capacity. 1) the tail gas recovery process has significant advantages in binding to the channels of large central enterprises, and the raw material gas comes from the tail gas recovery from the upstream super-large petrochemical plants, which has both gas source stability and cost advantages; 2) High-quality products are widely recognized by food, beverage and industrial customers. The company is the China strategic supplier of Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo Inc, covering food and beverage and well-known customers in the industry. 3) the capacity continues to expand deeply in the southern market, with an annual production capacity of 560000 tons of carbon dioxide, and a new carbon dioxide recovery plant in Jieyang, with a scale of 300,000 tons per year in the first phase, with a deep layout in the southern region.
Special gas business is growing rapidly, and multiple guarantees drive the company's new round of growth. 1) continuous filling special gas category, Yueyang electronic special gas project includes high purity carbon dioxide, he-ne krypton-xenon rare gas, laser mixed gas, etc., while Yizhang project includes high purity hydrogen chloride, hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen bromide and so on. 2) improve the guarantee of raw material self-sufficiency, Baling 90000Nm3 rare gas extraction plant plans to put 2023Q2 into production, and gradually realize rare gas raw material self-sufficiency. 3) acceleration of customer certification & order volume: a number of electronic special gas products have been certified by French liquid Air and COHERENT. In 2022, M1-9, the company's total sales of electronic special gas orders reached 257 million yuan, about 13 times of the order amount for the whole year of 2021, driving a new round of growth of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the leader of food-grade carbon dioxide company, the strong growth momentum of electronic special gas has become the company's new growth pole. We estimate that the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.28max 364pm, respectively, with an increase of 64%, 60%, 39%, and 0.58, respectively, corresponding to the first coverage of PE in 56-35-25, with a "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is lower than expected, project research and development is less than expected, market price fluctuation risk