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蔚来-SW(09866.HK):Q2营收同环比正增长 新车交付将提振销量

NIOLAI-SW (09866.HK): Q2 revenue is growing month-on-month, new car delivery will boost sales

東吳證券 ·  Sep 12, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment

Company announcement: 2022Q2 NIO Inc. Automobile achieved a total operating income of 10.292 billion yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 21.83% and 3.85% respectively, of which car sales revenue was 9.571 billion yuan and + 20.97% and 3.54% respectively. Q2 NIO Inc. 's overall gross profit margin is 13.0%, compared with the same month-5.63pct, respectively-1.60pct; car sales gross profit margin is 16.7%, respectively-3.57pct/-1.40pct. In the end, NIO Inc. 's net loss of 2022Q2 was 2.758 billion yuan, 2022Q1 was 1.783 billion yuan, and 2021Q2 was 587 million yuan. As of June 30, 2022, the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments were RMB 54.4 billion. In terms of Q3, the company expects vehicle delivery to be between 31000 and 33000, that is, NIO Inc. sold about 10,271 to 12,271 in September.

Q2 revenue is growing positively compared with the previous month, the rising battery cost lowers the gross profit margin, and continues to invest heavily in R & D & marketing activities. 1) the proportion of ET7 delivery increased and the Q2 delivery volume declined under the interference of the epidemic situation. Under the positive and negative effect, Q2 NIO Inc. achieved positive growth in revenue month-on-month. Q2 NIO Inc. delivered 25059 cars, which were + 14.45% and 2.75% respectively compared with the same month. Among them, ET7Q2 delivered 6749 vehicles, accounting for the total sales compared with the month-on-month increase of 26.3pct, the improvement of product structure increased bicycle revenue, 2022Q2 bicycle revenue of 38.19 million yuan per vehicle, compared with the same month-on-month ratio + 5.70% plus 6.46%. 2) under the positive and negative effect of the increase in the proportion of ET7 delivery and the rise in battery costs, the gross profit margin of Q2 NIO Inc. decreased compared with the previous month. 3) the increase of marketing activities-the sales network continues to expand, at the same time, it continues to invest heavily in research and development, and the cost rate is upward compared with the previous month. The quarterly R & D expenditure rate of 2022Q2 is 20.88%, which is + 10.42pct/+3.11pct compared with the same quarter. The increase in R & D expenditure rate is mainly due to the increase in R & D personnel costs and the incremental design and development costs of new products and technologies. The SG&An expense rate is 22.18%, and the increase in the cost rate is due to the expansion of the sales and service network and the increase in marketing and promotion expenses. By the end of June, there were 55 NIO Inc. centers and 359 NIO Inc. spaces in China. 4) under the influence of the above comprehensive factors, the loss of Q2 bicycle expanded with the same month-on-month ratio, and the final net loss was 2.758 billion yuan. The loss of Q2 bike is 110000 yuan (26800 yuan for 2021Q2 and 69200 yuan for 2022Q1).

Earnings forecasts and investment ratings: delivery of medium and large SUV ES7 based on the NT2 platform began in August. At the same time, the previous price increase orders began to be delivered one after another in Q3, and Q3 gross profit margin is expected to be repaired to a certain extent. Full-year delivery of ET5 will begin at the end of September, and we expect ET5 to contribute a significant increase in sales. We maintain our performance forecast for 2022-2024, with revenue of 572.55, 89639, 144.288 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 58.44%, 56.56%, 60.88%, and net profit belonging to common shareholders is-73.39, 53.14, and 2.418 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the valuation of PS in 2022-2024, the valuation is 4-2-1 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: chip / battery and other supply chain instability; software OTA upgrade policy stricter and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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