Event: the company released its semi-annual report for 2022, realizing a decrease in operating income of 49.82% and net profit of 64.62%. 1) 2022H1 realized revenue of 21.299 billion yuan, year-on-year-49.82%. 2) realized net profit of 1.716 billion yuan,-64.62% year-on-year; realized non-net profit of 1.203 billion yuan,-73.51% compared with the same period last year 22H1 is mainly affected by the decline in the start of projects and the impact of the epidemic in areas such as infrastructure and real estate, and the domestic market sales of the construction machinery industry have dropped greatly; 3) the company's net operating cash flow is 1.857 billion yuan,-55.02% compared with the same period last year; mainly due to the decrease in 22H1 sales rebates; 4) the company's total assets and homed net assets increased by 6.84% and-3.27% compared with the beginning of the year.
The overall market declined in the first half of the year, and the sales scale declined: 2022H1's gross profit margin was 20.78%, year-on-year-4.23pct; net profit rate was 8.26%, year-on-year-3.33pct; the company's 22H1 expense rate was 8.95%, down 4.44pct from the same period last year, of which sales / management / R & D / finance 5.45% + 0.58pct/+1.33pct/+0.55pct/-1.00pct, respectively. Among them, the decrease of R & D expenses is mainly due to the adjustment of experimental methods to reduce the consumption of R & D materials, and the decrease of financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase of interest income and exchange income.
2022Q2: the company realized revenue of 11.288 billion yuan, year-on-year-51.76%, month-on-month + 12.74%; realized return-to-mother net profit of 809 million yuan, year-on-year-66.75%, month-on-month-10.71%; realized non-net profit of 322 million yuan,-86.01% and-0.64%. Sales gross margin 21.41%, year-on-year-1.84pct; net sales margin 7.29%, year-on-year-3.37pct.
The impact of the short-term epidemic affects profits, and the growth momentum of the three major sectors continues to increase in the long run: the company is mainly engaged in the research and development, manufacture, sales and service of construction machinery and agricultural machinery, and is a leading enterprise in the domestic machinery industry. Affected by the decline in construction and real estate projects and the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, domestic sales in the construction machinery industry dropped sharply; the demand for rigidity of Chinese construction machinery in overseas markets continued to increase; and export sales in the construction machinery industry continued to maintain high growth. Within 22H1, under the framework of the overall strategy of "equipment manufacturing + Internet" and "industry + finance", the company accelerates the development and layout of construction machinery, agricultural machinery + intelligent agriculture and Zoomlion new materials, and the growth momentum continues to increase, smoothing the impact of periodic fluctuations in performance. Under the guidance of the concept of "making an enterprise with Internet thinking and making products with extreme thinking", the company closely revolves around the goal of high-quality development, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of digitization, intelligence and greening, speeding up the layout of emerging plates, and deepening the expansion of overseas markets. development resilience and internal vividness can be continuously enhanced to achieve better business quality than the industry.
Profit forecast and investment advice: considering the dual effects of lower-than-expected business, domestic epidemic and macro-control, we downgrade the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's return net profit in 2022-2024 is 3.678 billion (front value 6.761 billion), 3.98 billion (front value 7.268 billion) and 5.395 billion (front value 81.20), corresponding to PE 13.73,12.69 and 9.36 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating!
Risk hints: risks such as rising raw material costs, exchange rate fluctuations, repeated COVID-19 epidemic and macroeconomic uncertainty.